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Aviation section from the Area Forecast Discussion
issued at: Feb 17, 2019 3:47 AM HST

A surface low pressure area sits some 205 nm northeast of Maui (24n154w) this early Sunday morning. This is a much closer location compare to the evening position, having becoming more evident in the past couple of hours. Another low lies further north at 29n154w, making this a complex area of low pressure. The low pressure area is forecast to move west with the northern low becoming the dominant feature later today. A trough extends south to the Big Island, which will be moving slowly westward through today, reaching Maui this afternoon. Light southeast winds lies to the east of the trough, and locally strong northerly winds lies to the west of the trough. With this said, the Big Island will be under a southeast wind flow, while Maui County will have winds becoming westerly. Kauai will remain under a moderate to strong northerly wind flow through at least today, while Oahu will be light to moderate.

The radar derived low level winds over Kauai, is rather strong, clocking 30kt at 4k feet. Thus, AIRMET Tango will continue at least through 2200 UTC.

The large field of more robust looking showers is currently blowing through the smaller islands, from north to south. The showers appears to disperse and weaken as they near the smaller islands, with max tops around 15k feet, compare to 20k feet further upwind of the islands. Kauai and Oahu will continue to experience passing showers today, and the lighter winds over Molokai, Maui, and Lanai, will lead to some spotty afternoon showers. The Big Island is nearly clear this hour, with a dominant land breeze. Do expect clouds to return later this morning, with isolated afternoon showers expected on both sides of the island. The summit area of the Big Island will have some clouds, but nothing more is expected.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected beyond 40 nm north of our northern coastline.

The disperse shower rolling through Kauai and Oahu, in particular, does not warrant an AIRMET Sierra. Thus the airmet for Oahu will be taken down for the 16z aviation package.

No other aviation advisories are expected, and we will be keeping an eye out for AIRMET Sierra and mountain obscuration.

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