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SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
325 PM HST WED MAY 22 2019

OAHU-
325 PM HST WED MAY 22 2019

Surf along south facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet tonight, increasing to 4 to 6 feet Thursday.

Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Thursday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Thursday.

Outlook through Tuesday May 28: Surf will remain small along north facing shores for the next couple of days. A moderate northwest swell arriving Friday will boost surf as it peaks Saturday, then slowly subside through Memorial Day. Moderate surf will continue along south facing shores through Friday. A fairly large south swell may produce surf near advisory level surf over the Memorial Day weekend. Surf will build along east facing shores during the second half of this week as winds strengthen northeast of the area.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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SRDHFO

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
246 PM HST WED MAY 22 2019

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
05/22
5E724UP9-13ESAME
3SSW1446SAME
THU
05/23
5E834UPLOW9-13ESAME
3SSW1647UPMED
FRI
05/24
2NW1224UPLOW9-13ESAME
5E834SAMEMED
3SSW1546DOWNMED
SAT
05/25
4NW1257UPMED11-16EUP
6E835UPLOW
3SSW1345DOWNLOW
2SSW2047UPLOW
SUN
05/26
4NW1146SAMELOW11-16ESAME
5E834DOWNLOW
4SSW1668UPLOW
MON
05/27
3NW1035DOWNLOW11-16ESAME
5E724DOWNLOW
4SSW1568DOWNLOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY:. Active surf from around the compass.

DETAILED:. Mid Wednesday on northern shores has summery conditions with near nil breakers. Low conditions should hold on Thursday.

A cut-off, upper-level, cyclonic gyre and its associated surface low pressure system set up Tuesday 5/21 near 40N, 175W. It is expected to remain in the same area into Friday then weaken as it lifts NE.

Ocean surface winds at mostly strong levels with pockets to near gale cover a wide fetch over the 300-320 degree band in an area about 1200 nm out. The pattern is expected to hold for another 48 hours. This should give a long-lived event of short-period breakers.

Surf is expected to pick up locally near sundown Friday. Heights should climb above the May average on Saturday from 300-320 degrees and hold about the same into Sunday. Heights are expected to drop near or a notch below the average on Monday 5/27 from the same direction.

Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has breakers from 70-90 degrees at levels below the trade windswell average. A slight increase is predicted for Thursday.

See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion regarding the subtleties of the local trades into the weekend.

A 1032 mb surface high pressure near 40N, 140W set up 5/21 and is modelled to hold about the same through Friday 5/24. A wide fetch of fresh to strong trades within 20-25N, 140-150W is predicted to hold into Friday. This should trend breakers up to near the average Friday into Saturday. Heights should trend down below average by Monday from 70-90 degrees.

Mid Wednesday on southern shores has breakers near to a notch above the seasonal average. Similar to a notch larger surf is predicted for Thursday.

The SW Pacific S to E of New Zealand entered an active cyclonic mode 5/14 and held into 5/20. This placed sources over the 185-200 degree band relative to Hawaii. There were a series of fetches within this southern hemispheric source region that will make for overlapping events locally, keeping surf consistent through the period centered near 190 degrees.

The PacIOOS/CDIP Barbers Pt, Oahu and Lanai buoys 5/22 in the morning show the surf has remained steady for over 36 hours with a slight downward trend in the dominant wave period from 17 to 14 seconds. It also shows the start of a new event with a rise in the 17s band.

The new event was from a narrow fetch parallel to New Zealand 5/15. Seas grew over 30 feet along the narrow ribbon. As the fetch area shifted away from New Zealand, the fetch width increased as the wind speed decreased.

The event should slowly build to a peak late Thursday from 190-200 degrees. Additional long period swell is expected to overlap locally 5/23-25 out of 180-190 degrees from a separate fetch near the low center further SE of New Zealand 5/15-17. Near gale winds behind a front nosed well into the subtropics 5/17 and should keep shorter-period surf near the average locally into Saturday 5/28 as a new long period event arrives.

The next low pressure tracked east along 60S to the S of New Zealand 5/17 and stalled near 160W 5/18-19. A long wide fetch set over 40-65S with mostly gales to severe gales pushed NE behind a front. The aim was not direct at Hawaii though close enough to expect above average surf. Seas to near 30 feet reach about 3800 nm away by 5/19 into 5/20. Proximity aids in the potential for above average surf.

The long-period forerunner onset stage is due locally on Saturday 5/28 from 190-200 degrees. The event should climb above average on the inconsistent sets Saturday afternoon. The event should be filled in by Sunday morning and peak late Sunday well above average centered on 190 degrees. Heights should hold about the same with a slow downward trend Monday 5/27.

Into the long range, the 185-200 degree energy should slowly drop 5/28-29. The cyclonic pattern in the mid latitudes SE of New Zealand 5/14-20 shifted eastward near the eastern edge of the Hawaii swell window 5/21 due south of French Polynesia. A series of reinforcement low pressure systems and new fetches are on tap to keep active surf locally next week from 175-185 degrees. The first event should build in Hawaii late Monday 5/27 and peak late Tuesday 5/28 a notch above average. The second one should be 5/30-31 near average, and suggestions of a final one a notch below average for 6/1-2.

In the north Pacific, models show a large area of weak low pressure north of Hawaii near the Aleutians 5/26-28 that could make for tiny to small NNW surf locally within 5/29-31.

East side is predicted to be below average 5/28-30.

Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, May 24.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.weather.gov/hfo/marine

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Kaumalapau SW Lanai Buoy Barbers Point, Kalaeloa Buoy Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Pearl Harbor Entrance
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

Upcoming tides for select Hawaii locations

Tides for Honolulu

Tide tables for Hawaii