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SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
332 AM HST SUN FEB 17 2019

OAHU-
332 AM HST SUN FEB 17 2019

HIGH SURF WARNING FOR EAST FACING SHORES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR WEST FACING SHORES

Surf along east facing shores will be 12 to 18 feet today, lowering to 8 to 12 feet Monday.

Surf along north facing shores will be 12 to 18 feet today, decreasing to 8 to 12 feet Monday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 6 to 10 feet today, dropping to 5 to 7 feet Monday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Monday.

Outlook through Sunday February 24: The current northeast swell will gradually shift out of the north and diminish on Monday. A west northwest swell peaking today will slowly subside through midweek. A moderate short-period east swell is expected to build on Tuesday and may bring advisory level surf Wednesday along east facing shores.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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SRDHFO

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
303 PM HST FRI FEB 15 2019

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
02/15
10NE111014DOWN19-23NESAME
2NW1324DOWN
SAT
02/16
12NE111418UPMED11-16NDOWN
3WNW2068UPLOW
SUN
02/17
8NNE101012DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
4NNE1468UPMED
6ENE957UPLOW
5NW17812SAMELOW
MON
02/18
5N1057DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
5ENE1057SAMELOW
4NW1468DOWNLOW
TUE
02/19
5NNW11610UPLOW7-10EUP
5ENE1057SAMELOW
3NW1246DOWNLOW
WED
02/20
3NNW1035DOWNLOW9-13NNEUP
6ENE1068UPLOW
2NW1324SAMELOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY:. NW event for the long weekend as N through E remains active.

DETAILED:. Mid Friday on northern shores has breakers from a mix of directions at levels below the winter average. A low NW event is dropping 2/15 with a rising, long-period WNW event for Saturday PM 2/16.

A hurricane-force low pressure system in the far NW Pacific 2/12-13 tracked slowly NNE. It weakened as it entered the western Bering Sea 2/14-15.

A long-wide fetch set up over the 305-320 degree band with highest seas 2/13 to near 40 feet beyond 2400 nm from Hawaii. The source zone stayed mostly west of 165E. The long travel distance lowers local surf potential.

Long-period forerunners from 305-315 degrees are expected locally Saturday afternoon 2/16. The event should be filled in by Sunday 2/17 dawn from 305-320 degrees a notch under the winter average. It should slowly drop Sunday night into Tuesday from the same direction. Marginal gales from 2/15 out near 170E could keep small breakers from 305-315 degrees on Wednesday.

Northern exposures should also have active surf starting out NE Saturday, backing toward N by Sunday and holding into Wednesday within NNW to NNE from a nearby source. Further details are given below.

Long-period swell are also expected Sunday from 010-020 degrees. It was generated by severe gales in the Gulf of Alaska 2/14-15 that were aimed highest at the west coast of the USA. It should drop Monday as it is overshadowed by the nearby-generated surf of similar direction.

Mid Friday on eastern shores has breakers from 20-70 degrees well above the trade windswell average. Heights are predicted to increase on Saturday.

See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion regarding the unsettled weather and changing winds associated with upper level disturbances in the vicinity through the period.

Surface high pressure along 40 N to the N to NE of Hawaii has held all week and is modelled to hold through the period. Tight pressure gradient between the strong high and the surface low pressure areas near Hawaii and stretching toward California have allowed a large area of strong to marginal gales winds aimed at Hawaii. This had kept the surf up all week from NNE to ENE.

ASCAT satellite Friday morning 2/15 shows a large area of 30 knot winds on the north side of the surface low to the immediate ENE of Hawaii. Wave model output increases the local combined seas and swell from this source on Saturday, with surf expected to climb from 20-70 degrees.

With the westward shift of the nearby low pressure area, models show additional short- to moderate-period swell picking up on Oahu Sunday and holding into Wednesday within NNW to NNE.

A fetch over the 50-70 degree band E of Hawaii has set up 2/15 and expected to hold into mid next week. This should add more E-component windswell starting late Saturday and holding into next Wednesday at levels above average.

Given the overlapping events described above, the eastern side is expected to remain above average through the period from a wide directional spread. Waxing spring tides should enhance wave run- up during the higher high tides near dawn through the period.

Mid Friday on southern shores has near nil conditions. Heights should remain low on Saturday.

The increasing E-component to the windswell should trend select more easterly exposures up over the weekend and hold next week.

Tropical cyclonic activity near Vanuatu 2/11-15 is expected to add low, moderate period swell within 13-15s from 220-240 degrees Sunday 2/17 into mid week with tiny to small breakers.

Into the long range, no surf beyond tiny to small is expected from the southern hemisphere 2/21-23.

NW shores are expected to remain below average 2/21-23. N to E shores should top the heights with above average shorter-period breakers 2/21-23.

Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Tuesday, February 19.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Kaumalapau SW Lanai Buoy Barbers Point, Kalaeloa Buoy Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Pearl Harbor Entrance
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

Upcoming tides for select Hawaii locations

Tides for Honolulu

Tide tables for Hawaii