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SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
414 PM HST MON JUN 17 2019

OAHU-
414 PM HST MON JUN 17 2019

Surf along south facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet tonight, lowering to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet tonight, rising to 3 to 5 feet Tuesday.

Surf along north facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Tuesday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 3 feet or less through Tuesday.

Outlook through Monday June 24: A small long-period south-southwest is expected to fill in Tuesday into Wednesday and will be on the decline through the rest of the week. Tiny pulses of northwest swells is possible over the next few days, but will only result in small surf. Surf along east facing shores will begin to increase to near the summertime average early this week with possibly a small short-period northeast swell over the weekend.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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SRDHFO

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
249 PM HST MON JUN 17 2019

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
06/17
2NNW913SAME11-16ESESAME
4E713SAME
2SSW1535DOWN
TUE
06/18
2NNW913DOWNLOW11-16ESESAME
6E835UPLOW
2SSW1324DOWNLOW
1S2024UPLOW
WED
06/19
5E724DOWNLOW11-16ESAME
1S1824SAMELOW
THU
06/20
4E823DOWNLOW9-13EDOWN
2SE1013SAMELOW
FRI
06/21
3E812DOWNLOW7-10SEDOWN
2SE1023SAMELOW
SAT
06/22
3NE1035UPLOW7-10SESAME
2SE1023SAMELOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... Average or less surf for the last days of Spring.

DETAILED:. Mid Monday on northern shores has tiny to small, short-period breakers from 320-340 degrees. Similar surf is possible for Tuesday.

The Aleutian low pattern has been active off an on for about a month, extending the seasonal surf events towards summer. The long- lived low pressure pattern last week that peaked the surf locally on Sunday 6/16 weakened steadily 6/14-16. Wave Watch III (WW3) suggests similar low breakers for Tuesday and dropping to near nil levels by Wednesday. It should hold at summery levels into the weekend.

Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers from 60-90 degrees at levels below the trade windswell average. An increase is modelled for Tuesday.

Surface high pressure of 1030 mb near 35N, 140W between Hawaii and California has a batch of fresh breezes near to south of the latitude of Oahu 6/16 to the immediate east of Oahu. The PacIOOS/CDIP Hilo, Hawaii buoy shows an increase in seas 6/17. WW3 gives an uptick to windswell height and wave period for Tuesday on Oahu that could bump breakers up to near the average from 80-90 degrees. It should be short- lived with a downward trend Wednesday to Friday.

Weather models show a large area of strong breezes over the 30-50 degree band beyond 1200 nm away from Hawaii to the northeast 6/17-19. WW3 brings in this small pulse locally for the weekend with breakers near the average centered from 40 degrees.

Mid Monday on southern shores has breakers near the seasonal average from 180-200 degrees. Heights should remain average or less on Tuesday.

A cyclonic pattern S to SE of New Zealand 6/7-9 brought surf above average in Hawaii 6/14-16. NOAA southern buoys 51002 and 51004 and the PacIOOS/CDIP near shore buoys off southern Oahu and Lanai all show 6/17 the drop in wave energy and a downward shift in the dominant wave period. This event is expected to decline on Tuesday from 180-200 degrees.

A storm-force low pressure tracked east hugging the Antarctic ice sheet to the S to SE of New Zealand 6/11-12. Surface winds were zonal, or west to east, aiming swell toward the Americas. Angular spreading could bring low, long-period surf to Hawaii starting Tuesday. Surf should be within background to average levels at the peak late Tuesday into Wednesday from 175-190 degrees.

Background level surf from the remnant of the long-period event and from trades in the southern hemisphere should be the rule for Thursday into the weekend.

Into the long range, a compact low pressure with a narrow fetch of marginal gales east of New Zealand 6/17 is modelled to weaken 6/18. WW3 only gives 3'@13s at Pago Pago from this source. This event will likely become the dominant background swell locally 6/25-26 from 190 degrees.

Summery conditions should hold for northern exposures with select locations favoring NE windswell a notch higher.

The NE trade windswell is modelled to peak 6/23 near to a notch above average then slowly drop into 6/25.

Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, June 19.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.weather.gov/hfo/marine

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Kaumalapau SW Lanai Buoy Barbers Point, Kalaeloa Buoy Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Pearl Harbor Entrance
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

Upcoming tides for select Hawaii locations

Tides for Honolulu

Tide tables for Hawaii