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SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
413 PM HST WED FEB 20 2019

OAHU-
413 PM HST WED FEB 20 2019

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES

Surf along east facing shores will be 6 to 10 feet tonight through Thursday.

Surf along north facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet tonight, lowering to 2 to 4 feet Thursday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Thursday.

Outlook through Wednesday February 27: A short-period east swell will peak tonight, then gradually lower Thursday through the weekend. Advisory level surf is expected with this swell along east facing shores through Thursday. A moderate northwest swell is possible early next week followed by a large northwest near the middle of next week.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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SRDHFO

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
302 PM HST TUE FEB 19 2019

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
02/19
2NW1324DOWN7-10ESESAME
5N12810DOWN
5E1057UP
WED
02/20
2WNW1524UPLOW4-6VRBSAME
3N935DOWNLOW
8E10810UPLOW
THU
02/21
2NW1324DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
8E10810DOWNLOW
FRI
02/22
2NW1324SAMELOW4-6VRBSAME
5E1057DOWNLOW
SAT
02/23
2NW1224SAMELOW7-10NUP
3E1034DOWNLOW
SUN
02/24
2NW1124SAMELOW11-16NEUP
5NE612UPLOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY:. Quiet spell from NW with continued active surf on eastern shores.

DETAILED:. Mid Tuesday on northern shores has breakers from 315-030 degrees at levels below the winter average. Heights are decreasing.

A blocking ridge pattern over the central north Pacific near the Aleutians last week into this week has kept low pressure systems moving off Asia driven into the Bering Sea. There have been a series of such low pressures with highest seas aimed at the Aleutians. This pattern will give winter minimal conditions for the NW exposures of Hawaii this week.

Wave Watch III (WW3) shows a smidgen of NW swell picking up Wednesday from 300-320 degrees. It is likely to hold at tiny to small levels into Thursday. The low near the Aleutians on the Date Line and winds behind its associated front 2/18-19 could do a similar minimal event for 2/22-24 from 300-320 degrees.

A low pressure area in the Hawaiian vicinity over the past weekend lost its fetch for the more northerly component aimed at Oahu by late on Monday 2/18. The shorter-period swell of 8-14 seconds from 330-030 degrees arriving Tuesday 2/19 is expected to drop off rapidly overnight to tiny to small levels on Wednesday.

Mid Tuesday on eastern shores has breakers from 000-100 degrees at levels above the trade windswell average. An increase is predicted for Wednesday.

A 1043 mb surface high pressure system near 42N, 148W is modelled to stay the same into Wednesday then weaken as it moves ESE into Friday. Enhanced winds on the eastern side of the low pressure area in the Hawaiian vicinity has pockets to near gales within 150-155W SE to NE of the Big Island. This nearby source is expected to increase the easterly windswell from 70-100 degrees with 6-12s intervals Wednesday well above average, peaking Wednesday night, then dropping Thursday.

Models show the trades east of 150W dropping to moderate levels by late Thursday and decreasing into the weekend. This spells an end to the east windswell source. It should remain above average into Friday then drop below average Saturday from 70-100 degrees.

Mid Tuesday on southern shores has tiny to small breakers from a mix of directions. More easterly exposures should rise Wednesday aforementioned.

WW3 suggests a pinch of swell coming from 240 degrees on 2/19. The source was tropical cyclonic activity near Vanuatu last week. The system formed into tropical cyclone Oma as it moved more into the shadow of SW Pacific islands 2/16-19. No surf beyond tiny to small is expected from 240 degrees this week. Dominant surf for southern shores should be for diffracting and refracting easterly windswell this week.

Into the long range, east windswell should remain below average 2/25-27. A front pushing east from the Date Line 2/22 backed by marginal gales could bring a short- to moderate-period swell from 310-340 degrees for Monday 2/25 at levels below the winter average. It should be short-lived.

Models show a return to winter caliber low pressure systems in the NW to central N Pacific starting 2/24 hinting to above winter average conditions for the end of February and early March from WNW to NNW. Tropical system Wutip in the western north Pacific will be monitored for potential change of track into the NW Pacific next week.

Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, February 22.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Kaumalapau SW Lanai Buoy Barbers Point, Kalaeloa Buoy Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Pearl Harbor Entrance
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

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