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FZHW52 PHFO xml button
SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
324 AM HST FRI APR 19 2019

OAHU-
324 AM HST FRI APR 19 2019

Surf along north facing shores will be rising to 6 to 8 feet today, and lowering to 3 to 5 feet Saturday.

Surf along west facing shores will be rising to 2 to 4 feet today, lowering to 1 to 3 feet Saturday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet, increasing to 3 to 5 feet Saturday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Saturday.

Outlook through Friday April 26: Surf along north and west facing showers will lower through the day Saturday as the swell subsides. A small long-period west-northwest swell will be possible Monday through Wednesday. Surf is expected to rise along south facing shores Monday, then remain up through midweek. Surf along east facing shores will trend up over the weekend due to strengthening trades.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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SRDHFO

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
254 PM HST WED APR 17 2019

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
04/17
2NW1124DOWN11-16ESAME
4ENE824DOWN
THU
04/18
5E724SAMELOW11-16ESAME
FRI
04/19
4NNW1368UPMED11-16ESAME
5E724SAMELOW
SAT
04/20
3NNW1146DOWNLOW13-19EUP
6E734UPLOW
SUN
04/21
2NNW1024DOWNLOW13-19ESAME
6E734SAMELOW
MON
04/22
2NNW1124UPLOW13-19EDOWN
6E734SAMELOW
2S1635UPLOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY:. Short-lived NNW for Friday.

DETAILED:. Mid Wednesday on northern shores has small, declining breakers from 305-325 degrees. Surf should be at a minimum for the season on Thursday.

A marginal gale low tracked east from the Date Line just south of the Aleutians 4/15 with strong to near gale winds over the 320-340 degree band following a front to near 38N north of Hawaii late 4/16. The source weakened and moved east of the Hawaii swell window 4/17.

JASON satellite altimeter at 12Z 2019-04-17 measured seas of 12-14 feet in an area about 1000 nm away. With the shorter dominant wave periods due to the sub- to marginal gale winds, seas and swell lose height more rapidly with distance, thus the local resultant swell height should be less than half the heights 1000 nm out.

The event should fill in overnight Thursday night and peak mid day Friday from 320-340 degrees at levels near to just below the April average. Heights should fall to small levels by Saturday from 320-350 degrees.

A zonal, or west to east, jet stream has set up within 30-45N across the central north Pacific. This type pattern during the transition seasons of fall and spring usually spell below average surf since the low centers are weaker and the track is fast.

Models show one such fast-moving, compact, weak gale near 40N, 170W late 4/18 then out of the Hawaii swell window by late 4/19. This could bring a tiny to small, short-period event locally late Sunday 4/21 into Monday 4/22 from 310-340 degrees.

Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has breakers from 70-90 degrees at levels below the trade windswell average. Low conditions should continue on Thursday.

With the axis of high pressure modelled to hold near or south of 30N to the N to NE of Hawaii, the trades are predicted to be weak in the zonal band to the ENE to NE of Hawaii and moderate to fresh due E of Hawaii. With the narrow fetch of the latter and marginal magnitude of wind speeds, surf from windswell should stay below to near average through the period from 70-90 degrees with a slight trend up into the weekend.

Mid Wednesday on southern shores has low-end background surf. Similar conditions are expected for Thursday.

Low pressure patterns began to form in the Hawaii source zone S to SE of New Zealand to south of French Polynesia starting 4/11. There could be a minor increase of the background swell this Sunday from 190-200 degrees.

Better odds for Monday, when the source region fetch 4/14-17 grew over a vast area within 35-65S south of French Polynesia. The limiting factor has been the marginal gale status with seas mostly 20 feet or less. Surf should trend up locally on Monday to within upper-end background to the seasonal average level from 180-190 degrees.

Into the long-range, the pattern south of French Polynesia with the magnitude-deficient, yet long and wide fetch 4/14-17 is modelled to slowly shift eastward as the surface systems gain more strength. The higher seas are modelled to be aimed at targets SE of Hawaii. In general, Hawaii should see a long-lived spell of surf of at least upper-end background levels with peak days near to slightly above average within 4/23-30 from 170-190 degrees.

In the north Pacific, sources look weak within 4/19-21 with well below average surf expected locally 4/23-25.

Surf from trade windswell should hold near the average 4/23-25.

Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, April 19.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.weather.gov/hfo/marine

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Kaumalapau SW Lanai Buoy Barbers Point, Kalaeloa Buoy Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Pearl Harbor Entrance
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

Upcoming tides for select Hawaii locations

Tides for Honolulu

Tide tables for Hawaii