WTPA41 PHFO 012046

1100 AM HST THU SEP 01 2016
The eye of Hurricane Lester has become better defined this morning,
and deep convection has intensified around the center as Lester has
moved over a small pocket of slightly warmer SSTs of about 27C. This
has occurred in spite of modest southeasterly wind shear of 10 kt,
according to UW CIMSS, that has restricted outflow somewhat in the
eastern portion of the system. Dvorak current intensity estimates
are all up and range from 5.0 out of SAB to 5.5 from HFO, JTWC, and
CIMSS ADT. A recent CIMSS SATCON estimate came in at 97 kt. Given
the improved satellite presentation and these data, the current
intensity will be raised to 95 kt for this advisory, and this may
be conservative.

The re-emergence of the eye has led to improved confidence in the
center location, and the initial motion is set at 275/11 kt. Lester
is moving westward along the southern flank of a deep anticyclone
parked to the north, while an upper level trough sits over Hawaii.
This upper level trough will produce a weakness in the steering
ridge that is expected to cause Lester to make a gradual
west-northwestward turn during the next three days and a turn to the
northwest thereafter. The official track has changed little from the
prior advisory and runs near the TVCN and operational GFS along the
middle of the guidance envelope, with the ECMWF remaining to the
right of the official track. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for
the Big Island (Hawaii County) and Maui County. It would take only a
small leftward shift in the track to directly and profoundly affect
the state, and watches could be expanded to other islands later
today or tonight. This possibility must be considered when making
preparations over the next couple of days.

The recent intensification trend is expected to be short lived.
Along the forecast track, Lester will be over slightly cooler SSTs
later today or this evening and beyond, and SHIPS forecasts modest
vertical wind shear to persist. This is expected to lead to gradual
weakening. Given recent trends, the rate of weakening in the
official forecast has been slowed and is in line with the SHIPS,
LGEM, and IVCN through Saturday, then near the slightly higher IVCN
beyond that time.
INIT  01/2100Z 18.4N 144.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 18.9N 146.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 19.6N 149.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 20.4N 151.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 21.3N 154.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 23.6N 159.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 26.2N 164.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 30.0N 167.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
Forecaster Wroe