WTPA41 PHFO 062103
TCDCP1
 
Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 06 2018
 
The satellite presentation of Hurricane Hector continues to be very
impressive. Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the US Air Force 53rd
Weather Reconnaissance Squadron embarked on their first mission into
Hector and found the system to be stronger than anticipated, with
surface winds from the SFMR up to 137 kt and only slightly weaker
winds based on flight level data. Fixes from HFO, SAB, and JTWC all
came in at 6.5/127 kt, and CIMSS ADT yielded 137 kt. Given these
data, the initial intensity has been raised to 135 kt, making Hector
a strong category four hurricane. Slight adjustments to the the
wind radii were incorporated based on input from the aircraft.
Unfortunately, the Hurricane Hunter mission had to cut short due to
mechanical concerns, and there will not be additional data for the
afternoon. The next mission into Hector will be this evening.

The initial motion of Hector is slightly north of due west (280
degrees) at 14 kt. The intensity guidance continues to be very
tightly clustered, showing Hector on a similar track during the next
36 hours. The hurricane is expected to take a turn toward the due
west (270 degrees) on Wednesday and Thursday as ridging to the north
of the system strengthens. This is expected to take Hector just
south of the Hawaiian Islands. A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest is expected on days four and five as the mid to upper
level ridge north of Hector weakens.

Although the intensity forecast remains challenging, Hector is
expected to remain a major hurricane as it slowly weakens during
the next couple of days. Hector will remain in a low vertical wind
shear environment to the south of a strong ridge aloft for the next
several days. However, sea surface temperature will lower slightly,
and the system will be surrounded by dry mid level air. So far,
this has not had much of an effect on Hector, and the intensity
forecast has lower confidence. The forecast rate of weakening is
line with the dynamical models, keeping Hector slightly stronger
than SHIPS during the next 72 hours.  Thereafter, little change in
intensity is expected as sea surface temperatures increase.

While the official forecast track continues to lie to the south of
the Hawaiian islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the
forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts to
the State of Hawaii. This necessitates a Hurricane Watch for Hawaii
County.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 15.2N 143.1W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 15.6N 145.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 16.0N 148.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 16.3N 151.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 16.5N 154.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 16.7N 160.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 17.1N 166.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 18.0N 171.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe