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PEAC Seasonal Sea Level Outlook


April-May-June (AMJ) 2014

 

The following sections describe: (i) the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)-based forecasts for the seasonal MEAN and MAXIMUM sea level anomaly in the AMJ season of 2014, and (ii) the monthly sea level anomaly observed in the previous season, January-February-March (JFM) of 2013. See Figure 2 at right for location of USAPI tide guage stations.

Note that 'anomalies' are defined as 'deviations or departures from the normal' using 1983-2001 mean sea level values computed at each station. Also, note that the forecasting technique used here does not account for sea level anomalies created by other atmospheric or geological conditions such as tropical cyclones, storm surges or tsunamis.

(i) Seasonal Sea Level Outlook AMJ 2014

Based on the independent SST values observed in the JFM 2013 season, the resulting CCA model has been used to forecast the sea-level for the AMJ 2014 season (see Table 1).

tide station location
 
Table 1 : Forecasts of MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for AMJ 2014
 
Tide Gauge Station
Forecast Anomaly for AMJ 2014 (in inches)
 

Seasonal MEAN
Anomaly

Standard Deviation of AMJ season
Seasonal MAX
Anomaly
Standard Deviation of AMJ season
Marianas, Guam
+4
+3.7
+20
+4.0
Malakal, Palau
-1
+4.3
+39
+4.0
Yap, FSM
+1
+4.3
+32
+4.7
Chuuk, FSM**
*
*
*
*
Pohnpei, FSM
+2
+2.7
+34
+3.1
Majuro, RMI
+1
+2.2
+41
+2.9
Kwajalein, RMI
+3
+2.8
+42
+3.1
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+5
+4.2
+26
+4.6
Honolulu, Hawaii
+1
+1.7
+22
+2.0
Hilo, Hawaii
+1
+2.1
+21
+2.4
(*) Data Unavailable
Values for Chuuk (**) are guesstimated based on estimates from neighboring tide stations and observations from WSO Chuuk.
Anomaly between 0~±1 inch are considered to be negligible and are denoted by ***(+/-).
Anomalies withing the range of (+/-) 2 inches are unlikely to cause any advers climatic impact.



Remarks:

According to CPC/IRI ENSO, ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch. ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall. The NWS Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch starting this summer.  

Kelvin Waves signal potential El Nino. Another westerly wind event is in progress now in the western Pacific. The anomalous winds will almost certainly lead to another Kelvin wave, increasing the odds for an El Niño compared to the odds given last week.

According to experts from SOEST, the similarity of the development (JFM) of 2014 El Nino with the early stages of the 1997/98 El Nino event (JFM) is really striking (Fig. 1). Two westerly wind bursts (WWB) already hit the western tropical Pacific and a downwelling Kelvin wave is on its way to the eastern equatorial Pacific. The WWB season has just started and more of these strong wind events could lead to the development of a really big El Nino by the end of 2014. Of course, there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding this scenario.

 

 

(ii) Observed Monthly Sea Level Anomaly in JFM 2013

The monthly time series (JFM 2013) for sea-level anomaly has been taken from the UH Sea Level Center.

As compared to February 2014, the monthly mean sea level anomaly in March 2014 shows fall in all stations except Yap where a marginal rise was recorded. Honolulu remained static while Hilo recorded a slight rise.

Currently, based on 1983-2001 (mean annual cycle removed):

  • All north Pacific stations are 1-7 inches higher than normal.
  • Honolulu and Hilo are very close to normal.

 

 

Table 2 : Observed MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for JFM 2013

 
Tide Gauge Station
Observed MEAN Anomaly
Observed MAX Anomaly
 
Jan
Feb
Mar
Standard Deviation of the JFM mean
Jan
Feb
Mar
Standard Deviation of the JFM max
Marianas, Guam
+6.8
+6.6
+3.5
4.4
+22
+21
+21
4.0
Malakal, Palau
+6.5
+2.4
+1.2
5.3
+46
+42
+37
5.3
Yap, FSM
+8.9**
+6.7
+7.2
4.9
+34
+33
+34
5.2
Chuuk, FSM
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Pohnpei, FSM
+8.2
+7.5
*
3.6
+40
+36
*
3.5
Majuro, RMI
+7.9
+5.0
*
2.4
+48
+48
*
2.7
Kwajalein, RMI
+7.0
*
*
3.1
+52
*
*
3.4
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+8.0
+9.0
+6.2
3.3
+37
+35
+33
3.8
Honolulu, Hawaii
+1.0
+0.5
+0.5
1.6
+22
+17
+14
2.4
Hilo, Hawaii
*
-0.7
+0.7
2.0
+29
+22
+22
3.0
* Denotes where data is unavailable, ** This measurement likely related to the passage of Typhoon Haiyan.
 

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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: April 15 2014 01:15:32 GMT

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