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PEAC Seasonal Sea Level Outlook


January-February-March (JFM) 2014

 

The following sections describe: (i) the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)-based forecasts for the seasonal MEAN and MAXIMUM sea level anomaly in the JFM season of 2014, and (ii) the monthly sea level anomaly observed in the previous season, October-November-December (OND) of 2014. See Figure 2 at right for location of USAPI tide guage stations.

Note that 'anomalies' are defined as 'deviations or departures from the normal' using 1983-2001 mean sea level values computed at each station. Also, note that the forecasting technique used here does not account for sea level anomalies created by other atmospheric or geological conditions such as tropical cyclones, storm surges or tsunamis.

(i) Seasonal Sea Level Outlook JFM 2014

Based on the independent SST values observed in the OND 2014 season, the resulting CCA model has been used to forecast the sea-level for the DJF 2014 season (see Table 1).

tide station location
 
Table 1 : Forecasts of MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for JFM 2014
 
Tide Gauge Station
Forecast Anomaly for JFM 2014 (in inches)
 

Seasonal MEAN
Anomaly(1)

Standard Deviation of JFM season
Seasonal MAX
Anomaly(2)
Standard Deviation of JFM season
Marianas, Guam
+2
+4.6
+3
+4.2
Malakal, Palau
0
+5.2
+1
+5.2
Yap, FSM
+1
+4.8
+2
+4.8
Chuuk, FSM**
+1
*
+2
*
Pohnpei, FSM
+2
+4.4
+3
+4.2
Majuro, RMI
+2
+3.2
+3
+3.0
Kwajalein, RMI
+2
+3.6
+2
+3.8
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+3
+3.3
+2
+3.8
Honolulu, Hawaii
+1
+1.6
+2
+2.3
Hilo, Hawaii
+2
+1.9
+2
+2.8

(*) Data Unavailable
Values for Chuuk (**) are guesstimated based on estimates from neighboring tide stations and observations from WSO Chuuk.
Anomaly between 0~±1 inch are considered to be negligible and are denoted by ***(+/-). Figures in parenthesis represent year-to-year seasonal anomaly.
Anomalies withing the range of (+/-) 2 inches are unlikely to cause any adverse climatic impact.

1: Difference between the mean sea level for the given month and the 1983 through 2001 mean sea level value at each station (seasonal cycle removed); 2 : Difference between the maximum sea level for the given month and the 1983 through 2001 average maximum sea level value at each station (seasonal cycle removed)


Remarks:

There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions during the next two months, with ENSO-neutral favored thereafter.

During December 2014, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Although the surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies were consistent with El Niño, the overall atmospheric circulation continued to show only limited coupling with the anomalously warm water. The equatorial low-level winds were largely near average during the month, while upper-level easterly anomalies continued in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained slightly negative, but the Equatorial SOI remained near zero. Also, rainfall remained below average near the Date Line and was above-average over Indonesia. Overall, the combined atmospheric and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral.

 

(ii) Observed Monthly Sea Level Anomaly in OND 2014

The monthly time series (OND 2014) for sea-level anomaly has been taken from the UH Sea Level Center.

  • As compared to previous months, the monthly mean sea level in December remained stable in most of the stations. However, Palau, Yap, and Kapingamarangi recorded slight rise.
  • All stations, except Kapingamarangi and Pago Pago, are normal. Kwajalein is marginally below normal (+/- 1 inch).
  • Honolulu and Hilo are also normal.
  • The monthly maximum values registered rise for most of the stations. The rise in Yap is a subject for further investigation.
T he recent static trend of sea level is very supportive to the on-going weak El Nino /or ENSO-neutral state. Normally sea level is lower than normal during an El Nino year.
 

Table 2 : Observed MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for SON 2014

 
Tide Gauge Station
Observed MEAN Anomaly
Observed MAX Anomaly
 
October
November
December
Standard Deviation of the SON mean
October
November
December
Standard Deviation of the SON max
Marianas, Guam
-1
+1.4
**
4.1
+14
+18
+20
4.2
Malakal, Palau
-1.4
0
+1.5
4.3
+36
+36
+37
5.2
Yap, FSM
-1.6
+0.4
+3.5
4.6
+25
+25
+54
4.8
Chuuk, FSM
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Pohnpei, FSM
*
*
*
4.7
+27
+31
*
4.2
Majuro, RMI
+1.7
-1
*
3.5
+42
+39
*
3.0
Kwajalein, RMI
+1.5
-1
-1
3.6
+39
+36
+39
3.8
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+10
+8.7
+7.9
3.1
+35
+32
+31
3.8
Honolulu, Hawaii
+3.4
+1
+1
1.7
+20
+20
+21
2.3
Hilo, Hawaii
+2
+2.5
0
1.8
+22
+22
+25
2.8
* Denotes where data is unavailable. Blue: Rising Trend in Sea Level, Black: Stable Sea Level, Red: Falling Trend in Sea Level
 

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Page Last Modified: January 20 2015 21:00:12 GMT

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