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PEAC Seasonal Sea Level Outlook


June-July-August (JJA) 2014

 

The following sections describe: (i) the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)-based forecasts for the seasonal MEAN and MAXIMUM sea level anomaly in the JJA season of 2014, and (ii) the monthly sea level anomaly observed in the previous season, April-May-June (AMJ) of 2014. See Figure 2 at right for location of USAPI tide guage stations.

Note that 'anomalies' are defined as 'deviations or departures from the normal' using 1983-2001 mean sea level values computed at each station. Also, note that the forecasting technique used here does not account for sea level anomalies created by other atmospheric or geological conditions such as tropical cyclones, storm surges or tsunamis.

(i) Seasonal Sea Level Outlook JJA 2014

Based on the independent SST values observed in the FMA 2014 season, the resulting CCA model has been used to forecast the sea-level for the JJA 2014 season (see Table 1).

tide station location
 
Table 1 : Forecasts of MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for JJA 2014
 
Tide Gauge Station
Forecast Anomaly for JJA 2014 (in inches)
 

Seasonal MEAN
Anomaly

Standard Deviation of JJA season
Seasonal MAX
Anomaly
Standard Deviation of JJA season
Marianas, Guam
+3.5
+3.6
+21
+3.8
Malakal, Palau
-0.5
+4.6
+41
+4.4
Yap, FSM
+0.9
+4.6
+32
+4.7
Chuuk, FSM**
+1.0
*
+31
*
Pohnpei, FSM
+1.5
+3.1
+32
+3.4
Majuro, RMI
+0.5
+2.5
+40
+2.9
Kwajalein, RMI
+2.1
+2.9
+42
+3.2
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+4.8
+3.6
+26
+4.0
Honolulu, Hawaii
+1.5
+1.7
+20
+2.3
Hilo, Hawaii
+1.7
+2.0
+23
+2.6
(*) Data Unavailable
Values for Chuuk (**) are guesstimated based on estimates from neighboring tide stations and observations from WSO Chuuk.
Anomaly between 0~±1 inch are considered to be negligible and are denoted by ***(+/-).
Anomalies withing the range of (+/-) 2 inches are unlikely to cause any advers climatic impact.



Remarks:

 

According to CPC/IRI ENSO, ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch , with about a 65% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall. The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño compared with those from last month.

Also during April, weak low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the far western Pacific, while upper-level easterly anomalies occurred over much of the Pacific.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center   has   issued an El Niño Watch starting   this summer.  

 

(ii) Observed Monthly Sea Level Anomaly in AMJ 2014

The monthly time series (AMJ 2014) for sea-level anomaly has been taken from the UH Sea Level Center.

As compared to previous months, the monthly mean sea level in May fell in all stations, except Palau, which displayed a slight rise in May and was close to normal in April 2014.

Currently, based on 1983-2001 (mean annual cycle removed):

  • As compared to previous months, the monthly mean sea level in June fell in all stations, except GUAM and KWAJALEIN (these two stations displayed slight rise in June).
  • Malakal, Yap, Pohnpei, and Majuro registered further fall and all are close to normal.
  • Guam and Pago Pago are still higher than normal.
  • Honolulu and Hilo also recorded rise and slightly above normal.
  • The monthly maximum values remained static for some stations; others, like Guam, Yap Kwajalein Honolulu and Hilo recorded slight rise.

 

 

Table 2 : Observed MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for AMJ 2014

 
Tide Gauge Station
Observed MEAN Anomaly
Observed MAX Anomaly
 
Apr
May
June
Standard Deviation of the AMJ mean
Apr
May
June
Standard Deviation of the AMJ max
Marianas, Guam
+5.5
+3.6
+5.5
3.7
+13
+17
+20
4.1
Malakal, Palau
+0
+2.0
-0.3
4.2
+34
+36
+34
4.3
Yap, FSM
+6.7
+2.7
+2.3
4.3
+34
+28
+31
4.7
Chuuk, FSM
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Pohnpei, FSM
+0.5
-0.5
*
2.8
+28
+28
*
3.2
Majuro, RMI
+0.8
+0.3
*
2.2
+36
+34
*
3.1
Kwajalein, RMI
+1.7
0
+1.4
2.8
+36
+35
+38
3.2
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+5.6
+5.0
+4.5
4.3
+27
+27
+29
4.7
Honolulu, Hawaii
+0
-0.7
+3.5
1.6
+16
+17
+23
2.0
Hilo, Hawaii
-0.1
-0.3
+1.2
2.0
+18
+22
+26
2.4
* Denotes where data is unavailable. Blue: Rising Trend in Sea Level, Black: Stable Sea Level, Red: Falling Trend in Sea Level
 

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Page Last Modified: July 11 2014 19:40:45 GMT

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