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PEAC Seasonal Sea Level Outlook


October-November-December (OND) 2014

 

The following sections describe: (i) the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)-based forecasts for the seasonal MEAN and MAXIMUM sea level anomaly in the OND season of 2014, and (ii) the monthly sea level anomaly observed in the previous season, July-August-September (JAS) of 2014. See Figure 2 at right for location of USAPI tide guage stations.

Note that 'anomalies' are defined as 'deviations or departures from the normal' using 1983-2001 mean sea level values computed at each station. Also, note that the forecasting technique used here does not account for sea level anomalies created by other atmospheric or geological conditions such as tropical cyclones, storm surges or tsunamis.

(i) Seasonal Sea Level Outlook SON 2014

Based on the independent SST values observed in the JAS 2014 season, the resulting CCA model has been used to forecast the sea-level for the OND 2014 season (see Table 1).

tide station location
 
Table 1 : Forecasts of MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for OND 2014
 
Tide Gauge Station
Forecast Anomaly for OND 2014 (in inches)
 

Seasonal MEAN
Anomaly(1)

Standard Deviation of OND season
Seasonal MAX
Anomaly(2)
Standard Deviation of OND season
Marianas, Guam
+2.8
+4.1
+2.7
+3.6
Malakal, Palau
+1.4
+4.4
+2.4
+4.5
Yap, FSM
+2.1
+4.6
+2.5
+5.0
Chuuk, FSM**
+2.1
*
+2.5
*
Pohnpei, FSM
+2.3
+4.7
+1.7
+4.9
Majuro, RMI
+2.2
+3.5
+1.8
+3.8
Kwajalein, RMI
+3.1
+3.7
+2.0
+3.8
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+4.2
+3.1
+2.0
+3.3
Honolulu, Hawaii
+3.1
+1.7
+2.3
+2.5
Hilo, Hawaii
+3.1
+1.8
+1.5
+2.2

(*) Data Unavailable
Values for Chuuk (**) are guesstimated based on estimates from neighboring tide stations and observations from WSO Chuuk.
Anomaly between 0~±1 inch are considered to be negligible and are denoted by ***(+/-). Figures in parenthesis represent year-to-year seasonal anomaly.
Anomalies withing the range of (+/-) 2 inches are unlikely to cause any adverse climatic impact.

1: Difference between the mean sea level for the given month and the 1983 through 2001 mean sea level value at each station (seasonal cycle removed); 2 : Difference between the maximum sea level for the given month and the 1983 through 2001 average maximum sea level value at each station (seasonal cycle removed)


Remarks:

 

According to CPC/IRI ENSO, ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch , the chance of   El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

However, recently subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) increased. This warming is associated with the downwelling phase of an equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave triggered in July by low-level westerly wind anomalies. Westerly wind anomalies continued in the central and eastern part of the basin early in August, but weakened by the end of the month. Enhanced easterly upper-level wind anomalies have prevailed during much of the month, and the Southern Oscillation Index has been negative. Consistent with the current ENSO state, the current sea level are likely to remain same for now.

 

(ii) Observed Monthly Sea Level Anomaly in JAS 2014

The monthly time series (JAS 2014) for sea-level anomaly has been taken from the UH Sea Level Center.

  • As compared to previous months, the monthly mean sea level in September recorded fall in some stations while others remained stable. Only Pago Pago recorded and Guam recorded rise again.
  • All stations, except Kapingamarangi and Pago Pago, are either normal or very close to normal (+/- 1 inch).
  • Honolulu and Hilo are also stable, but slightly elevated.
  • The monthly maximum values remained static for most of the stations.
The recent falling trend of sea level is very supportive to the on-going El Nino state. Normally sea level is lower than normal during an El Nino year.
 

Table 2 : Observed MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for JAS 2014

 
Tide Gauge Station
Observed MEAN Anomaly
Observed MAX Anomaly
 
July
August
September
Standard Deviation of the JAS mean
July
August
September
Standard Deviation of the JAS max
Marianas, Guam
+3.6
+0.5
+1.4
3.6
+21
+17
+17
3.4
Malakal, Palau
0
-0.5
-1
4.5
+37
+38
+37
4.6
Yap, FSM
+1.8
+2.0
+0
4.8
+28
+29
+30
4.2
Chuuk, FSM
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Pohnpei, FSM
+1.8
+1
*
3.4
+31
+29
*
3.3
Majuro, RMI
+2.1
+2
*
2.5
+43
+44
*
3.2
Kwajalein, RMI
+1.0
+0.5
+1.1
3.0
+40
+40
+39
3.2
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+8.6
+8.6
+9.3
3.4
+35
+35
+36
3.6
Honolulu, Hawaii
+1.5
+4
+4.4
1.8
+20
+20
+25
2.3
Hilo, Hawaii
+1.7
+4
+2.8
1.8
+25
+26
+23
2.4
* Denotes where data is unavailable. Blue: Rising Trend in Sea Level, Black: Stable Sea Level, Red: Falling Trend in Sea Level
 

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Page Last Modified: October 13 2014 01:06:05 GMT

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