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PEAC Seasonal Sea Level Outlook


October-November-December (DJF) 2014

 

The following sections describe: (i) the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)-based forecasts for the seasonal MEAN and MAXIMUM sea level anomaly in the DJF season of 2014, and (ii) the monthly sea level anomaly observed in the previous season, August-September-October (ASO) of 2014. See Figure 2 at right for location of USAPI tide guage stations.

Note that 'anomalies' are defined as 'deviations or departures from the normal' using 1983-2001 mean sea level values computed at each station. Also, note that the forecasting technique used here does not account for sea level anomalies created by other atmospheric or geological conditions such as tropical cyclones, storm surges or tsunamis.

(i) Seasonal Sea Level Outlook DJF 2014

Based on the independent SST values observed in the ASO 2014 season, the resulting CCA model has been used to forecast the sea-level for the DJF 2014 season (see Table 1).

tide station location
 
Table 1 : Forecasts of MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for DJF 2014
 
Tide Gauge Station
Forecast Anomaly for DJF 2014 (in inches)
 

Seasonal MEAN
Anomaly(1)

Standard Deviation of DJF season
Seasonal MAX
Anomaly(2)
Standard Deviation of DJF season
Marianas, Guam
+2
+4.6
+3
+4.2
Malakal, Palau
0
+5.2
+1
+5.2
Yap, FSM
+1
+4.8
+2
+4.8
Chuuk, FSM**
+1
*
+2
*
Pohnpei, FSM
+2
+4.4
+3
+4.2
Majuro, RMI
+2
+3.2
+3
+3.0
Kwajalein, RMI
+2
+3.6
+2
+3.8
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+3
+3.3
+2
+3.8
Honolulu, Hawaii
+1
+1.6
+2
+2.3
Hilo, Hawaii
+2
+1.9
+2
+2.8

(*) Data Unavailable
Values for Chuuk (**) are guesstimated based on estimates from neighboring tide stations and observations from WSO Chuuk.
Anomaly between 0~±1 inch are considered to be negligible and are denoted by ***(+/-). Figures in parenthesis represent year-to-year seasonal anomaly.
Anomalies withing the range of (+/-) 2 inches are unlikely to cause any adverse climatic impact.

1: Difference between the mean sea level for the given month and the 1983 through 2001 mean sea level value at each station (seasonal cycle removed); 2 : Difference between the maximum sea level for the given month and the 1983 through 2001 average maximum sea level value at each station (seasonal cycle removed)


Remarks:

According to CPC/IRI ENSO, ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch, the chance of  El Niño is at 65% during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

Steady warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past two months has resulted in ocean surface temperatures reaching weak El Niño levels. However, the overlying atmosphere is showing a mix of responses, with some indicators exceeding El Nino thresholds, while others remain neutral. Models and expert opinion suggest there is approximately a 65-70% chance that a weak El Niño event will become established before the end of February 2015. If an event does occur, it is most likely to be weak and persist for the first quarter of 2015. Some El Nino-like impacts have already been observed in several countries, and impacts in other areas may develop regardless of whether an El Nino becomes fully established.

 

(ii) Observed Monthly Sea Level Anomaly in SON 2014

The monthly time series (SON 2014) for sea-level anomaly has been taken from the UH Sea Level Center.

  • As compared to previous months, the monthly mean sea level in November recorded fall in all stations except Guam and Yap. These two stations registered negligible rise.
  • All stations, except Kapingamarangi and Pago Pago, are normal. Kwajalein is marginally below normal (+/- 1 inch).
  • Honolulu and Hilo are also stable, but slightly elevated.
  • The monthly maximum values remained static for most of the stations.
Most of the islands recorded fall and the recent falling trend of sea level is very supportive to the on-going El Nino state. Normally sea level is lower than normal during an El Nino year.
 

Table 2 : Observed MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for SON 2014

 
Tide Gauge Station
Observed MEAN Anomaly
Observed MAX Anomaly
 
September
October
November
Standard Deviation of the SON mean
September
October
November
Standard Deviation of the SON max
Marianas, Guam
+1.4
-1
+1.4
3.5
+17
+14
+18
4.2
Malakal, Palau
-1
-1.4
0
4.4
+37
+36
+36
5.2
Yap, FSM
+0
-1.6
+0.4
4.7
+30
+25
+25
4.8
Chuuk, FSM
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Pohnpei, FSM
+0.5
*
*
4.3
+27
+27
*
4.2
Majuro, RMI
+2.2
**
*
3.3
+44
+42
*
3.0
Kwajalein, RMI
+1.1
+1.5
-1
3.5
+39
+39
+36
3.8
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+9.3
+10
+8.7
3.1
+36
+35
+32
3.8
Honolulu, Hawaii
+4.4
+3.4
+1
1.8
+25
+20
+20
2.3
Hilo, Hawaii
+2.8
+2
+2.5
1.8
+23
+22
+22
2.8
* Denotes where data is unavailable. Blue: Rising Trend in Sea Level, Black: Stable Sea Level, Red: Falling Trend in Sea Level
 

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Page Last Modified: December 15 2014 04:21:50 GMT

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