Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center
banner piece
  banner piece
Local forecast by
"City, St" or Zip Code

PEAC Seasonal Sea Level Outlook


June-July-August (JJA) 2014

 

The following sections describe: (i) the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)-based forecasts for the seasonal MEAN and MAXIMUM sea level anomaly in the JJA season of 2014, and (ii) the monthly sea level anomaly observed in the previous season, May-June-July (MJJ) of 2014. See Figure 2 at right for location of USAPI tide guage stations.

Note that 'anomalies' are defined as 'deviations or departures from the normal' using 1983-2001 mean sea level values computed at each station. Also, note that the forecasting technique used here does not account for sea level anomalies created by other atmospheric or geological conditions such as tropical cyclones, storm surges or tsunamis.

(i) Seasonal Sea Level Outlook ASO 2014

Based on the independent SST values observed in the MJJ 2014 season, the resulting CCA model has been used to forecast the sea-level for the ASO 2014 season (see Table 1).

tide station location
 
Table 1 : Forecasts of MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for ASO 2014
 
Tide Gauge Station
Forecast Anomaly for ASO 2014 (in inches)
 

Seasonal MEAN
Anomaly

Standard Deviation of ASO season
Seasonal MAX
Anomaly
Standard Deviation of ASO season
Marianas, Guam
+3.2
+3.6
+18(2)
+3.5
Malakal, Palau
+2.4
+4.5
+39(3)
+4.6
Yap, FSM
+3.3
+4.8
+31(4)
+4.8
Chuuk, FSM**
+3.3
*
+30(4)
*
Pohnpei, FSM
+3.6
+3.4
+32(4)
+3.3
Majuro, RMI
+2.5
+2.5
+42(3)
+3.2
Kwajalein, RMI
+3.7
+3.0
+42(4)
+3.5
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+4.8
+3.4
+30(5)
+3.9
Honolulu, Hawaii
+2.5
+1.8
+21(2)
+2.3
Hilo, Hawaii
+2.0
+1.8
+23(2)
+2.4

(*) Data Unavailable
Values for Chuuk (**) are guesstimated based on estimates from neighboring tide stations and observations from WSO Chuuk.
Anomaly between 0~±1 inch are considered to be negligible and are denoted by ***(+/-). Figures in parenthesis represent year-to-year seasonal anomaly.
Anomalies withing the range of (+/-) 2 inches are unlikely to cause any adverse climatic impact.



Remarks:

According to CPC/IRI ENSO, ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch , the chance of   El Niño has decreased to about   65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter . Consistent with the current ENSO state we may not see any further fall soon.

The lack of a coherent atmospheric El Niño pattern, and a return to near-average SSTs in the central Pacific, indicate ENSO-neutral. A strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages, and slightly more models call for a weak event rather than a moderate event. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during August-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch starting   this summer
 

(ii) Observed Monthly Sea Level Anomaly in MJJ 2014

The monthly time series (AMJ 2014) for sea-level anomaly has been taken from the UH Sea Level Center.

  • As compared to previous months, the monthly mean sea level in July fell in all stations, except Pohnpei, Majuro, and Pago Pago (Pago Pago displayed an abrupt rise while other two stations displayed slight rise in July). Guam recorded considerable fall.
  • Malakal, Yap, Pohnpei, and Majuro registered negligible rise and all are close to normal.
  • Guam and Pago Pago are still higher than normal.
  • Honolulu recorded fall while Hilo recorded slight rise.
  • The monthly maximum values remained static for some stations; others, like Palau, Majuro, and Kwajalein recorded slight rise.
The recent falling trend of sea level is very supportive to the on-going El Nino state. Normally sea level is lower than normal during an El Nino year.

 

 

Table 2 : Observed MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for AMJ 2014

 
Tide Gauge Station
Observed MEAN Anomaly
Observed MAX Anomaly
 
May
June
July
Standard Deviation of the AMJ mean
May
June
July
Standard Deviation of the AMJ max
Marianas, Guam
+3.6
+6.2
+3.6
3.5
+17
+20
+20
4.0
Malakal, Palau
+2.0
-0.1
0
4.4
+36
+34
+34
4.2
Yap, FSM
+2.7
+2.8
+1.8
3.7
+28
+31
+31
3.6
Chuuk, FSM
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Pohnpei, FSM
-0.5
+0.7
+1.8
3.0
+28
*
*
3.3
Majuro, RMI
+0.2
+1.9
+2.1
2.3
+34
*
*
3.0
Kwajalein, RMI
0
+1.4
+1.0
2.8
+35
+38
+38
3.0
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+5.0
+4.5
+8.6
4.0
+27
+29
+29
4.2
Honolulu, Hawaii
-0.7
+3.5
+1.5
1.8
+17
+23
+23
2.4
Hilo, Hawaii
-0.3
+1.2
+1.7
2.1
+22
+26
+26
2.7
* Denotes where data is unavailable. Blue: Rising Trend in Sea Level, Black: Stable Sea Level, Red: Falling Trend in Sea Level
 

Click here for more sea level information and products.



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: August 18 2014 22:31:41 GMT

Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary

Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities