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PEAC Seasonal Sea Level Outlook


October-November-December (NDJ) 2014

 

The following sections describe: (i) the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)-based forecasts for the seasonal MEAN and MAXIMUM sea level anomaly in the NDJ season of 2014, and (ii) the monthly sea level anomaly observed in the previous season, August-September-October (ASO) of 2014. See Figure 2 at right for location of USAPI tide guage stations.

Note that 'anomalies' are defined as 'deviations or departures from the normal' using 1983-2001 mean sea level values computed at each station. Also, note that the forecasting technique used here does not account for sea level anomalies created by other atmospheric or geological conditions such as tropical cyclones, storm surges or tsunamis.

(i) Seasonal Sea Level Outlook NDJ 2014

Based on the independent SST values observed in the ASO 2014 season, the resulting CCA model has been used to forecast the sea-level for the NDJ 2014 season (see Table 1).

tide station location
 
Table 1 : Forecasts of MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for NDJ 2014
 
Tide Gauge Station
Forecast Anomaly for NDJ 2014 (in inches)
 

Seasonal MEAN
Anomaly(1)

Standard Deviation of NDJ season
Seasonal MAX
Anomaly(2)
Standard Deviation of NDJ season
Marianas, Guam
+2
+4.4
+3
+3.8
Malakal, Palau
0
+4.8
+1
+4.8
Yap, FSM
+1
+4.8
+2
+5.0
Chuuk, FSM**
+1
*
+2
*
Pohnpei, FSM
+2
+4.8
+2
+4.8
Majuro, RMI
+1
+3.7
+2
+3.8
Kwajalein, RMI
+2
+3.7
+2
+3.9
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+4
+3.1
+2
+3.6
Honolulu, Hawaii
+2
+1.7
+2
+2.4
Hilo, Hawaii
+2
+1.9
+2
+2.4

(*) Data Unavailable
Values for Chuuk (**) are guesstimated based on estimates from neighboring tide stations and observations from WSO Chuuk.
Anomaly between 0~±1 inch are considered to be negligible and are denoted by ***(+/-). Figures in parenthesis represent year-to-year seasonal anomaly.
Anomalies withing the range of (+/-) 2 inches are unlikely to cause any adverse climatic impact.

1: Difference between the mean sea level for the given month and the 1983 through 2001 mean sea level value at each station (seasonal cycle removed); 2 : Difference between the maximum sea level for the given month and the 1983 through 2001 average maximum sea level value at each station (seasonal cycle removed)


Remarks:

According to CPC/IRI ENSO, ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch , the chance of   El Niño is at 58% during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

Several features across the tropical Pacific are characteristic of borderline El Niño conditions, but collectively, the ongoing lack of clear atmosphere-ocean coupling and the latest NCEP CFSv2 model forecast have reduced confidence that El Niño will fully materialize (at least five overlapping consecutive 3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C). If El Niño does emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event. So, further fall of sea level depends on how strong this year’s El Nino is going to be.

 

(ii) Observed Monthly Sea Level Anomaly in ASO 2014

The monthly time series (ASO 2014) for sea-level anomaly has been taken from the UH Sea Level Center.

  • As compared to previous months, the monthly mean sea level in October recorded fall in all stations except Pago Pago and Kapingamarangi.
  • All stations, except Kapingamarangi and Pago Pago, are either normal or marginally below normal (+/- 1 inch).
  • Honolulu and Hilo are also stable, but slightly elevated.
  • The monthly maximum values remained static for most of the stations, except Guam and Yap where it recorded significant fall.
Most of the islands recorded fall and t he recent falling trend of sea level is very supportive to the on-going El Nino state. Normally sea level is lower than normal during an El Nino year.
 

Table 2 : Observed MEAN and MAX sea level anomaly in inches for ASO 2014

 
Tide Gauge Station
Observed MEAN Anomaly
Observed MAX Anomaly
 
August
September
October
Standard Deviation of the ASO mean
August
September
October
Standard Deviation of the ASO max
Marianas, Guam
+0.5
+1.4
-1
3.5
+17
+17
+14
3.4
Malakal, Palau
-0.5
-1
-1.4
4.3
+38
+37
+36
4.6
Yap, FSM
+2.0
+0
-1.6
4.7
+29
+30
+25
4.2
Chuuk, FSM
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
Pohnpei, FSM
+1
+0.5
*
3.8
+29
+27
*
3.3
Majuro, RMI
+2
+2.2
*
2.8
+44
+44
*
3.2
Kwajalein, RMI
+0.5
+1.1
+1.5
3.2
+40
+39
+39
3.2
Pago Pago, American Samoa
+8.6
+9.3
+10
3.2
+35
+36
+35
3.6
Honolulu, Hawaii
+4
+4.4
+3.4
1.8
+20
+25
+20
2.3
Hilo, Hawaii
+4
+2.8
+2
1.8
+26
+23
+22
2.4
* Denotes where data is unavailable. Blue: Rising Trend in Sea Level, Black: Stable Sea Level, Red: Falling Trend in Sea Level
 

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Page Last Modified: November 14 2014 06:55:30 GMT

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