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PEAC Seasonal Sea Level Outlook
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March - April - May (MAM) 2013 |
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The following sections describe: (i) the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)-based forecasts for the monthly MEAN and MAXIMUM sea level deviations in the MAM 2013 season, and (ii) the monthly sea level deviations observed in the previous season, January - February - March (JFM) 2012. See Figure 2 at right for location of USAPI tide guage stations.
All units are in inches. 'Deviation’ is defined here as 'the observed or forecast difference between the monthly mean [or maximum] and the climatological monthly mean values (from the period 1975- 1995) computed at each station’. Also, note that the forecasting technique adapted here does not account for sea level deviations created by other atmospheric or geological conditions such as tropical cyclones, storm surges or tsunamis.
(i) Seasonal Sea Level Outlook MAM 2013
Based on the independent SST values observed in the JFM 2012 season, the resulting CCA model has been used to forecast the sea-level for the MAM 2013 season (see Table 1).
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Table 1 : Forecasts of MEAN and MAX sea level deviation in inches for MAM 2013
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Tide Gauge Station |
Forecast Deviations for MAM 2013 (in inches) |
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Standard Deviation of previous season |
MAX
Deviation |
Standard Deviation of previous season |
| Marianas, Guam |
+3 |
4.3 |
+18 |
4.0 |
| Malakal, Palau |
0 |
5.2 |
+36 |
5.3 |
| Yap, FSM |
0 |
4.2 |
+30 |
4.5 |
| Chuuk, FSM** |
+3 |
* |
+28 |
* |
| Pohnpei, FSM |
+4 |
3.4 |
+33 |
3.4 |
| Kapingamarangi, FSM |
* |
* |
* |
* |
| Majuro, RMI |
+2 |
2.4 |
+43 |
2.7 |
| Kwajalein, RMI |
+4 |
3.0 |
+42 |
3.4 |
| Pago Pago, American Samoa |
+3 |
3.3 |
+26 |
3.8 |
| Honolulu, Hawaii |
0 |
1.6 |
+18 |
2.5 |
| Hilo, Hawaii |
0 |
2.0 |
+22 |
3.0 |
(*) Data Unavailable
Values for Chuuk (**) are guesstimated based on estimates from neighboring tide stations and observations from WSO Chuuk.
Deviations between 0~±1 inch are considered to be negligible and are denoted by ***(+/-).
Deviations withing the range of (+/-) 2 inches are unlikely to cause any advers climatic impact.
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(ii) Observed Monthly Sea Level Deviation in JFM 2013
The monthly time series (JFM 2013) for sea-level deviations have been taken from the UH Sea Level Center.
As compared to February 2013, the monthly mean sea level in March 2013 shows slight rise in most of the USAPI stations. A synopsis of last 3-months sea level variability is as follows:
- In January and February all stations registered rise except Honolulu wich registered fall during both months
- During March, all stations registered rise in sea level with the exception of Honolulu
- Pohnpei and Majuro Failed to report sea level data for the month of March
- Currently, based on 1983-2001 mean value, all stations are 2-6 inches higher than normal; based on 2001-10 mean value, all stations are 1-4 inches higher than normal
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Table 2 : Observed MEAN and MAX sea level deviation in inches for JFM 2013 |
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Tide Gauge Station |
Observed Deviation from MEAN |
Observed Deviation from MAX |
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Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
| Marianas, Guam |
+5.5 |
+6.0 |
+6.2 |
+21 |
+20 |
+20 |
| Malakal, Palau |
* |
* |
* |
+41 |
+40 |
+39 |
| Yap, FSM |
+3.3 |
+5.0 |
+6.0 |
+32 |
+32 |
+33 |
| Chuuk, FSM |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
| Pohnpei, FSM |
+4.1 |
+6.5 |
* |
+36 |
* |
* |
| Kapingamarangi, FSM |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
| Majuro, RMI |
+4.0 |
+1.9 |
* |
+45 |
* |
* |
| Kwajalein, RMI |
+3.5 |
+3.0 |
+4.0 |
+44 |
+42 |
+43 |
| Pago Pago, American Samoa |
+6.8 |
+6.0 |
+5.0 |
+32 |
+28 |
+27 |
| Honolulu, Hawaii |
-0.1 |
-1.0 |
0 |
+22 |
+18 |
+15 |
| Hilo, Hawaii |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
| * Denotes where data is unavailable. |
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