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PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook


September-October-November (SON) 2014

Model:
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
Republic of Palau
 

Koror

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Avg.
Avg.
Above
Avg-below
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Avg-above
Average
30:40:30
Federated States of Micronesia
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Avg.
Above
Above
Avg-below
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Above
Avg-above
30:35:35
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Avg.
Above
Above
Avg-below
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Above
Average
30:40:30
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Above
Avg-above
Avg-above
Avg.
Avg-above
Climatology
Avg.
Avg.
Average
30:40:30
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Below
Above
Avg.
Avg.
Above
Climatology
Avg.
N/A
Average
30:40:30
Republic of the Marshall Islands
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Above
Above
Above
Avg.
Above
Climatology
Above
Below
Average
30:40:30
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Avg-above
Above
Above
Avg-above
Above
Avg.
Above
Below
Average
30:40:30
Guam and CNMI
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Avg.
Above
Above
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Above
Above
Avg-above
30:35:35
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Avg.
Above
Avg-above
Avg-above
Avg-above
Climatology
Above
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
American Samoa
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Avg-below
Avg-above
Avg-above
Avg-above
Avg-below
Below
Avg.
Above
Avg-above
30:35:35
State of Hawaii
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Avg-above
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Avg.
N/A
Average
30:40:30
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Above
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Above
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Above
Avg-above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Avg.
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Above
Avg-above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
*N/A = * Pride data currently unavailable

Forecast Discussion

Koror: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 30.65 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 30.65 inches and 41.38 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 41.38 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 32.05 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 32.05 inches and 38.09 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.09 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Chuuk. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 33.73 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 32.73 inches and 38.35 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.35 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 33.73 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 32.73 inches and 38.35 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.35 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 38.3 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 38.3 inches and 43.49 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 43.49 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 30.69 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 30.69 inches and 34.83 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 34.83 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Majuro.There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 34.74 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 34.74 inches and 42.55 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 40.5 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 30.44 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 30.44 inches and 33.78 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.78 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Saipan. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 26.19 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 26.19 inches and 29.77 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 29.77 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 26.91 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 26.91 inches and 31.48 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.48 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 9.17 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 9.17 inches and 11.22 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.22 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 2.52 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 2.52 inches and 5.59 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 5.59 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 2.08 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 2.08 inches and 4.76 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 4.76 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for September-October-November 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 24.29 inches; a 35 % chance that rainfall will be between 24.29 inches and 40.81 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 40.81 inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for September-October-November (SON) 2014 was made available on 15 September 2014.



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: September 15 2014 21:52:22 GMT

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