PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

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PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

May- June- July (MJJ) 2013

Model:		UKMO	ECMWF	NCEP CA	NASA GMAO	NCEP Coupled	IRI	PRIDE*	Final Outlook	Final Probabilities

Republic of Palau
Koror	L 7 ° 22' N, λ 134° 32' E	Avg.	Above	Avg-above	Avg-above	Above	Climatology	N/A	Avg-above	30:35:35

Federated States of Micronesia
Yap	L 9° 29' N, λ 138° 05' E	Below	Above	Avg.	Avg.	Avg.	Climatology	N/A	Avg-above	30:35:35
Chuuk	L 7° 28' N, λ 151° 51' E	Below	Above	Avg.	Avg.	Above	Below	N/A	Avg.	30:40:30
Pohnpei	L 6 ° 59' N, λ 158° 12' E	Climatology	Above	Avg-below	Avg-below	Avg-above	Below	N/A	Avg.	30:40:30
Kosrae	L 5 ° 21' N, λ 162° 57' E	Avg-below	Above	Avg-below	Avg.	Avg.	Below	N/A	Avg.	30:40:30

Republic of the Marshall Islands
Kwajalein	L 8 ° 43' N, λ 167° 44' E	Above	Avg-below	Below	Below	Avg-below	Climatology	N/A	Avg-below	35:35:30
Majuro	L 7° 04' N, λ 171° 17' E	Above	Avg.	Below	Below	Avg.	Below	N/A	Avg-below	35:35:30

Guam and CNMI
Guam	L 13 ° 29' N, λ 144° 48' E	Avg-above	Climatology	Avg.	Avg-above	Avg.	Avg.	N/A	Avg.	30:40:30
Saipan	L 15 ° 06' N, λ 145° 48' E	Avg.	Avg.	Avg.	Avg-above	Avg.	Avg.	N/A	Avg.	30:40:30

American Samoa
Pago Pago	L 14 ° 20' S, λ 170° 43' E	Above	Avg.	Above	Avg-below	Avg.	Climatology	N/A	Avg-above	30:35:35

State of Hawaii
Lihue	L 21 ° 59' N, λ 159 ° 20' E	Climatology	Below	Avg-below	Avg-above	Avg.	Climatology	N/A	Avg-below	35:35:30
Honolulu	L 21 ° 19' N, λ 157° 56' W	Climatology	Below	Avg-below	Avg.	Avg.	Climatology	N/A	Avg-below	35:35:30
Kahului	L 20 ° 54' N, λ 156° 26' E	Climatology	Below	Avg-below	Avg.	Avg.	Climatology	N/A	Avg-below	35:35:30
Hilo	L 19 ° 43' N, λ 155° 03' E	Avg.	Below	Avg-below	Avg.	Avg.	Climatology	N/A	Avg-below	35:35:30

* Pride data currently unavailable

Click here to download the monthly PEAC Audio Conference Summary and discussion as a PDF file.

Forecast Discussion

Koror: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 42.33 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 42.33 inches and 55.62 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 55.62 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 31.95 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 31.95 inches and 39.5 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 39.5 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE for Chuuk. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 34.01 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 34.01 inches and 37.92 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 37.92 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 45.79 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 45.79 inches and 54.28 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 54.28 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 45.01 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 45.01 inches and 50.14 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 50.14 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 20.99 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 20.99 inches and 26.52 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 26.52 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Majuro. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 30.51 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 30.51 inches and 33.4 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 30.4 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 18.47 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 18.47 inches and 21.81 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 21.81 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE for Saipan. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 13.58 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 13.58 inches and 18.53 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 18.53 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 18.47 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 18.47 inches and 26.13 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 26.83 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 4.87 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 4.87 inches and 5.93 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 5.93 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 0.84 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 0.84 inches and 1.62 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 1.62 inches..

Kahului: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 0.7 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 0.7 inches and 1.83 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 1.83 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for May-June-July 2013 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the MJJ season will be less than 20.19 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 20.19 inches and 29.13 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 29.13 inches.

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for June-July-August (JJA) 2013 will be available on 20 June 2013.


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