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PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook 

JanuaryFebruaryMarch (JFM) 2014 



*N/A = PEAC CCA data currently unavailable for these stations 

Forecast Discussion 

Koror: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 23.9 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 23.9 inches and 32.43 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 32.43 inches. Yap: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 14.98 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 14.98 inches and 21.91 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 21.91 inches. Chuuk: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Chuuk. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 22.35 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 22.35 inches and 31.31 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.31 inches. Pohnpei: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 34.4 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 34.4 inches and 43.28 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 43.28 inches. Kosrae: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Kosrae. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 43.67 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 43.67 inches and 53.33 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 53.33 inches. Kwajalein: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 7.24 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 7.24 inches and 11.19 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.19 inches. Majuro: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Majuro.There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 20.29 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 20.29 inches and 24.26 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 24.26 inches. Guam: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 8.52 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 8.52 inches and 11.35 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.35 inches. Saipan: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Saipan. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 6.98 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 6.98 inches and 9.47 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 9.47 inches. Pago Pago: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 35.08 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 35.08 inches and 42.92 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.92 inches. Lihue: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 6.52 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 6.52 inches and 13.75 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 13.75 inches. Honolulu: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 2.08 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 2.08 inches and 7.8 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 7.8 inches. Kahului: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 4.24 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 4.24 inches and 8.23 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.23 inches. Hilo: Rainfall for JanuaryFebruaryMarch 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 22 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 22 inches and 44.53 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 44.53 inches. 

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cutoffs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 19812010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for JanuaryFebruaryMarch (JFM) 2014 was made available on 13 November 2014. 

