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PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook


August-September-October (ASO) 2014

Model:
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
Republic of Palau
 

Koror

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Avg.
Above
Above
Avg-below
Below
Below
Below
Below
Avg-below
35:35:30
Federated States of Micronesia
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Avg-below
Above
Above
Above
Avg-below
Below
Avg.
Above
Average
30:40:30
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Avg-above
Above
Above
Avg-above
Avg.
Above
Avg.
Above
Avg-above
30:35:35
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Avg-above
Above
Above
Above.
Avg-above
Above
Above
Below
Avg-above
30:35:35
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Avg-below
Above
Avg.
Above
Avg-above
Above
Above
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
Republic of the Marshall Islands
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Above
Above
Above
Avg.
Avg.
Above
Above
Below
Avg-above
30:35:35
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Avg.
Above
Above
Avg-above
Avg.
Above
Above
Below
Avg-above
30:35:35
Guam and CNMI
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Above
Above
Above
Above
Avg.
Below
Above
Above
Above
25:35:40
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Above
Above
Above
Above
Avg.
Below
Above
N/A
Above
25:35:40
American Samoa
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Avg-below
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Avg-above
Above
Avg-above
30:35:35
State of Hawaii
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Above
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg-above
Climatology
Above
N/A
Above
30:33:40
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Above
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Above
N/A
Above
30:30:40
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Above
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Above
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Above
Above
Below
Avg-above
Avg.
Climatology
Above
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
*N/A = * Pride data currently unavailable

Forecast Discussion

Koror: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 35.83 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 35.83 inches and 43.49 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 43.49 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 37.61 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 37.61 inches and 44.47 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 44.47 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Chuuk. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 33.32 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 33.32 inches and 42.92 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.92 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 40.96 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 40.96 inches and 45.22 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 45.22 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 37.76 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 37.76 inches and 40.35 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 40.35 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 29.26 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 29.26 inches and 34.92 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 34.92 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Majuro.There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 32.51 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 32.51 inches and 40.5 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 40.5 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Guam. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 39.08 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 39.08 inches and 44.79 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 44.79 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Saipan. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 31.99 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 31.99 inches and 36.25 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 36.25 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 19.26 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 19.26 inches and 27.9 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 27.9 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Lihue. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 6.24 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 6.24 inches and 8.43 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.43 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Honolulu. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 1.62 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 1.62 inches and 3.14 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 3.14 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 0.84 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 0.84 inches and 2.45 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 2.45 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for August-September-October 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the ASO season will be less than 26.06 inches; a 35 % chance that rainfall will be between 26.06 inches and 33.29inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.29inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for August-September-October (ASO) 2014 was made available on 18 August 2014.



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: August 18 2014 22:31:43 GMT

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