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PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook


January-February-March (JFM) 2014

Model:
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
Republic of Palau
 

Koror

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Avg.
Avg-below
Above
Avg.
Below
Below
Below
Below
Avg-below
35:35:30
Federated States of Micronesia
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Above
Avg.
Avg-below
Avg.
Avg-below
Below
Above
Avg-below
Average
30:40:30
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-below
Avg-above
Avg-below
Below
Avg.
Avg-below
Avg-below
35:35:30
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Avg.
Above
Avg-below
Above
Avg.
Avg.
Above
Below
Avg-above
30:35:35
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Above
Above
Avg.
Above
Above
Avg.
Above
N/A
Above
25:35:40
Republic of the Marshall Islands
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Average
30:40:30
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Above
Above
Above
Above
Avg-above
Avg.
Above
Below
Above
25:35:40
Guam and CNMI
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Avg-above
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Above
Below
Avg-above
30:35:35
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Avg.
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Avg.
N/A
Avg-below
35:35:30
American Samoa
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Above
Above
Above
Below
Avg.
Below
Above
Below
Avg-above
30:35:35
State of Hawaii
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Avg-below
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Avg-below
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-below
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-below
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
*N/A = PEAC CCA data currently unavailable for these stations

Forecast Discussion

Koror: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 23.9 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 23.9 inches and 32.43 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 32.43 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 14.98 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 14.98 inches and 21.91 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 21.91 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Chuuk. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 22.35 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 22.35 inches and 31.31 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.31 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 34.4 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 34.4 inches and 43.28 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 43.28 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Kosrae. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 43.67 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 43.67 inches and 53.33 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 53.33 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 7.24 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 7.24 inches and 11.19 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.19 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Majuro.There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 20.29 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 20.29 inches and 24.26 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 24.26 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 8.52 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 8.52 inches and 11.35 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.35 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Saipan. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 6.98 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 6.98 inches and 9.47 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 9.47 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 35.08 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 35.08 inches and 42.92 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.92 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 6.52 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 6.52 inches and 13.75 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 13.75 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 2.08 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 2.08 inches and 7.8 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 7.8 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 4.24 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 4.24 inches and 8.23 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.23 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for January-February-March 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 22 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 22 inches and 44.53 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 44.53 inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for January-February-March (JFM) 2014 was made available on 13 November 2014.



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: January 20 2015 21:00:13 GMT

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