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PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook 

SeptemberOctoberNovember (SON) 2014 



*N/A = * Pride data currently unavailable 

Forecast Discussion 

Koror: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 30.65 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 30.65 inches and 41.38 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 41.38 inches. Yap: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 32.05 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 32.05 inches and 38.09 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.09 inches. Chuuk: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Chuuk. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 33.73 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 32.73 inches and 38.35 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.35 inches. Pohnpei: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 33.73 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 32.73 inches and 38.35 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.35 inches. Kosrae: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 38.3 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 38.3 inches and 43.49 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 43.49 inches. Kwajalein: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 30.69 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 30.69 inches and 34.83 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 34.83 inches. Majuro: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Majuro.There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 34.74 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 34.74 inches and 42.55 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 40.5 inches. Guam: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 30.44 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 30.44 inches and 33.78 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.78 inches. Saipan: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Saipan. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 26.19 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 26.19 inches and 29.77 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 29.77 inches. Pago Pago: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 26.91 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 26.91 inches and 31.48 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.48 inches. Lihue: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 9.17 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 9.17 inches and 11.22 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.22 inches. Honolulu: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 2.52 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 2.52 inches and 5.59 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 5.59 inches. Kahului: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 2.08 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 2.08 inches and 4.76 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 4.76 inches. Hilo: Rainfall for SeptemberOctoberNovember 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 24.29 inches; a 35 % chance that rainfall will be between 24.29 inches and 40.81 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 40.81 inches. 

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cutoffs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 19812010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for SeptemberOctoberNovember (SON) 2014 was made available on 15 September 2014. 

