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PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook 

DecemberJanuaryFebruary (DJF) 2014 



*N/A = PEAC CCA data currently unavailable for these stations 

Forecast Discussion 

Koror: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 26.42 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 26.42 inches and 37.21 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 37.21 inches. Yap: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 17.47 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 17.47 inches and 25.53 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 25.53 inches. Chuuk: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Chuuk. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 25.39 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 25.39 inches and 32.01 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 32.01 inches. Pohnpei: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 34.23 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 34.23 inches and 45.42 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 45.42 inches. Kosrae: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 43.72 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 43.72 inches and 53.68 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 53.68 inches. Kwajalein: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 11.78 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 11.78 inches and 16.47 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 16.47 inches. Majuro: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Majuro.There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 24.24 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 24.24 inches and 30.01 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 30.01 inches. Guam: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 11.41 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 11.41 inches and 16.49 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 16.49 inches. Saipan: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Saipan. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 8.66 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 8.66 inches and 11.56 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.56 inches. Pago Pago: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 35.2 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 35.2 inches and 46.65 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 46.65 inches. Lihue: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 7.45 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 7.45 inches and 13.98 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 13.98 inches. Honolulu: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 3.68 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 3.68 inches and 8.62 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.62 inches. Kahului: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 4.64 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 4.64 inches and 8.68 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.68 inches. Hilo: Rainfall for DecemberJanuaryFebruary 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 19.58 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 19.58 inches and 33.29 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.29 inches. 

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cutoffs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 19812010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for DecemberJanuaryFebruary (DJF) 2014 was made available on 13 November 2014. 

