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PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook


February-March-April (FMA) 2014

Model:
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
Republic of Palau
 

Koror

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Clim.
Below
Above
Above
Below
Below
Below
Avg-below
Avg-below
35:35:30
Federated States of Micronesia
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Avg-above
Above
Below
Above
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Below
Average
30:40:30
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Avg-above
Above
Avg-below
Above
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Average
30:40:30
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Avg-above
Above
Avg-below
Above
Avg-above
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Average
30:40:30
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Avg.
Above
Avg-below
Above
Above
Avg.
Above
N/A
Average
30:40:30
Republic of the Marshall Islands
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Avg.
Above
Below
Avg-below
Avg-above
Above
Avg.
Clim.
Average
30:40:30
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Avg.
Above
Above
Avg.
Above
Above
Avg.
Clim.
Avg-above
30:35:35
Guam and CNMI
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Avg-above
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Clim.
Above
Below
Average
30:40:30
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Avg.
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Clim.
Above
N/A
Avg-below
35:35:30
American Samoa
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Avg.
Above
Above
Avg-above
Avg.
Clim.
Above
Below
Avg-above
30:35:35
State of Hawaii
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Below
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Clim.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-below
35:35:30
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Below
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Clim.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-below
35:35:30
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-below
Avg-below
Avg.
Clim.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-below
35:35:30
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-below
Avg.
Clim.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-below
35:35:30
*N/A = PEAC CCA data currently unavailable for these stations

Forecast Discussion

Koror: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 22.53 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 22.53 inches and 31.23 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.23 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 14.18 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 14.18 inches and 19.83 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 19.83 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Chuuk. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 25.26 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 25.26 inches and 31.4 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.4 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 38.32 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 38.32 inches and 48.92 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 48.92 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 45.07 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 45.07 inches and 52.02 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 52.02 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 8.63 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 8.63 inches and 16.52 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 16.52 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Majuro.There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 21.03 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 21.03 inches and 28.4 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 28.4 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 6.88 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 6.88 inches and 10.04 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 10.04 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Saipan. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 6.15 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 6.15 inches and 8.74 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.74 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 32.29 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 32.29 inches and 36.83 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 36.83 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 5.78 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 5.78 inches and 9.92 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 9.92 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 1.18 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between1.18 inches and 4.7 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 4.7 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 3.25 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 3.25 inches and 6.41 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 6.41 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for February-March-April 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 24.59 iches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 24.59 inches and 45.54 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 45.54 inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for February-March-April (FMA) 2014 was made available on 15 February 2015.



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: February 16 2015 05:36:46 GMT

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