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PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook


July-August-September (JAS) 2014

Model:
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
Republic of Palau
 

Koror

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Below
Above
Above
Avg-above
Avg.
Climatology
Below
Below
Avg-above
30:35:35
Federated States of Micronesia
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Avg-above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
20:30:50
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Above
Avg-above
Above
Above
Avg-above
Above
Avg.
Above
Above
25:35:40
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Above
Avg-above
Above
Above.
Avg.
Above
Avg.
Avg.
Above
25:35:40
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Avg.
Above
Avg-above
Above
Avg.
Above
Avg.
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
Republic of the Marshall Islands
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Above
Avg-above
Avg-above
Avg.
Avg-above
Above
Avg.
Below
Avg-above
30:35:35
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Avg.
Above
Above
Above
Avg.
Above
Above
Below
Avg-above
30:35:35
Guam and CNMI
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
20:30:50
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Above
Above
Above
Above
Avg-above
Above
Above
N/A
Above
25:30:45
American Samoa
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Avg.
Below
Avg-above
Avg-below
Avg.
Climatology
Below
Above
Average
30:40:30
State of Hawaii
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Above
Above
Below
Avg-above
Avg.
Climatology
Above
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Above
Above
Below
Avg-above
Avg.
Above
Above
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Above
Above
Below
Avg-above
Avg.
Above
Above
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Above
Above
Below
Avg-above
Avg.
Above
Above
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
*N/A = * Pride data currently unavailable

Forecast Discussion

Koror: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 39.25 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 39.25 inches and 50.04 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 50.04 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Yap. There is a 20% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 41.9 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 41.9 inches and 46.11 inches; and a 50% chance that rainfall will be greater than 46.11 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Chuuk. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 34.86 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 34.86 inches and 44.29 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 44.29 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Pohnpei. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 40.06 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 40.06 inches and 50.76 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 50.76 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 41.49 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 41.49 inches and 47.32 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 47.32 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 28.97 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 28.97 inches and 33.09 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.09 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Majuro.There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 31.17 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 31.17 inches and 38.16 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.16 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Guam. There is a 20% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 37.2 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 37.2 inches and 44.54 inches; and a 50% chance that rainfall will be greater than 44.54 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Saipan. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 29.48 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 29.48 inches and 35.85 inches; and a 45% chance that rainfall will be greater than 35.85 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 15.04 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 15.04 inches and 23.4 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 23.4 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 5.27 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 5.27 inches and 7.79 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 7.79 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 1.02 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 1.02 inches and 1.67inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 1.67 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 0.84 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 0.84 inches and 1.64 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 1.64 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for July-August-September 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JAS season will be less than 25.17 inches; a 35 % chance that rainfall will be between 25.17 inches and 33.44 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.44 inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for July-August-September (JAS) 2014 was made available on 11 July 2014.



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: July 11 2014 19:40:53 GMT

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