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PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook


December-January-February (DJF) 2014

Model:
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
Republic of Palau
 

Koror

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Avg-below
Below
Above
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Below
Avg-above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Federated States of Micronesia
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-below
Avg.
Avg-below
Below
Below
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Above
Avg-below
Avg.
Below
Avg-above
Average
30:40:30
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Avg-above
Avg-above
Below
Above
Avg-below
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-below
Average
30:40:30
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Above
Above
Below
Above
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
N/A
Average
30:40:30
Republic of the Marshall Islands
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Avg.
Below
Below
Avg-above
Avg.
Above
Avg.
Above
Average
30:40:30
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Above
Above
Above
Above
Avg.
Above
Above
Above
Above
25:35:40
Guam and CNMI
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Avg.
Avg-above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Above
Above
Average
30:40:30
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Below
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Above
N/A
Average
30:40:30
American Samoa
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Avg-above
Above
Above
Below
Below
Climatology
Above
Above
Avg-above
30:35:35
State of Hawaii
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
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Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Avg.
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Avg-above
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Avg.
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Avg-above
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Avg.
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Avg-above
Above
Below
Avg-below
Avg.
Climatology
Avg.
Avg-above
Avg-below
35:35:30
*N/A = PEAC CCA data currently unavailable for these stations

Forecast Discussion

Koror: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 26.42 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 26.42 inches and 37.21 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 37.21 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 17.47 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 17.47 inches and 25.53 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 25.53 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Chuuk. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 25.39 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 25.39 inches and 32.01 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 32.01 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 34.23 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 34.23 inches and 45.42 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 45.42 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 43.72 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 43.72 inches and 53.68 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 53.68 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 11.78 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 11.78 inches and 16.47 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 16.47 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Majuro.There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 24.24 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 24.24 inches and 30.01 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 30.01 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 11.41 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 11.41 inches and 16.49 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 16.49 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Saipan. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 8.66 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 8.66 inches and 11.56 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.56 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 35.2 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 35.2 inches and 46.65 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 46.65 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 7.45 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 7.45 inches and 13.98 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 13.98 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 3.68 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 3.68 inches and 8.62 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.62 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 4.64 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 4.64 inches and 8.68 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.68 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for December-January-February 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the DJF season will be less than 19.58 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 19.58 inches and 33.29 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.29 inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for December-January-February (DJF) 2014 was made available on 13 November 2014.



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: December 15 2014 04:21:51 GMT

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