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PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook


November-December-January (NDJ) 2014

Model:
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
Republic of Palau
 

Koror

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Avg-below
Avg-below
Above
Avg-below
Below
Below
Below
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Federated States of Micronesia
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Avg.
Avg.
Above
Avg.
Avg-below
Below
Below
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Climatology
Below
Below
Avg-below
35:35:30
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Avg.
Climatology
Avg-below
Above
Avg-below
Climatology
Avg.
Below
Average
30:40:30
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Above
Above
Avg-below
Above
Avg.
Climatology
Above
N/A
Average
30:40:30
Republic of the Marshall Islands
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Avg-above
Climatology
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Avg.
Below
Avg-below
35:35:30
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Avg-above
Above
Above
Avg-above
Avg-above
Above
Above
Below
Average
30:40:30
Guam and CNMI
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Below
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Above
Climatology
Average
30:40:30
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Below
Above
Below
Avg.
Avg.
Climatology
Above
N/A
Avg-above
30:35:35
American Samoa
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Above
Above
Above
Avg-below
Avg.
Climatology
Avg.
Above
Above
25:35:40
State of Hawaii
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Avg-above
Above
Below
Avg-above
Avg.
Below
Avg.
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Above
Above
Below
Avg-above
Avg.
Below
Below
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Above
Above
Below
Avg-above
Avg.
Below
Below
Above
Avg-below
35:35:30
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Climatology
Below
Below
Avg-above
Avg.
Below
Below
Avg.
Avg-below
35:35:30
*N/A = * Pride data currently unavailable

Forecast Discussion

Koror: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Koror. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 31.24 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 31.24 inches and 38.99 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.99 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Yap. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 27.44 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 27.44 inches and 32.32 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 32.32 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Chuuk. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 30.88 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 30.88 inches and 38.67 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.67 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 43.58 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 43.58 inches and 49.78 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 49.79 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 39.86 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 39.86 inches and 44.83 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 44.83 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Kwajalein. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 29.07 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 29.07 inches and 31.88 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.88 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Majuro.There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 35.14 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 35.14 inches and 41.82 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 41.82 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 24.01 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 24.01 inches and 29.41 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 29.41 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE for Saipan. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 20.13 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 20.13 inches and 23.26 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 23.26 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be ABOVE for Pago Pago. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 31.15 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 31.15 inches and 41.56 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 41.56 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Lihue. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 9.18 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 9.18 inches and 15.56 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 15.56 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Honolulu. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 4.36 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 4.36 inches and 8.52 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.52 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Kahului. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 4.18 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 4.18 inches and 8.05 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.05 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for November-December-January 2014 is expected to be AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE for Hilo. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the NDJ season will be less than 28.26 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 28.26 inches and 41.99 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 41.99 inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for November-December-January (NDJ) 2014 was made available on 13 November 2014.



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: November 14 2014 06:55:34 GMT

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