PEAC CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

The PEAC outlook ¹ for tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin for the remainder of 2012 (November and December) is for near normal activity (which is the occurrence of about 5 more named cyclones) and continuation of their westward displacement. The anticipated distribution of tropical cyclones for the remainder of 2012 reduces the risk (with respect to normal) of a damaging tropical storm or typhoon at all islands located eastward of 145ºE. The risk of a damaging tropical cyclone at Yap, Guam, the CNMI and Palau (all located to the west of 145ºE) will be close to normal. The upcoming cyclone/hurricane season for American Samoa is also anticipated to be near normal (see island summaries for further details).

¹ The PEAC tropical cyclone forecasts for 2011 are based on forecasts of the status of ENSO and input from three seasonal outlooks for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific basin: (1) The Guam Weather Forecast Office (WFO), (2) The City University of Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, under the direction of Dr. J. C-L. Chan, and (3) The Benfield Hazard Research Centre, University College London, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) research group, UK, led by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders.