Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center
banner piece
  banner piece
Local forecast by
"City, St" or Zip Code
Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 4


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State: The 2012 3rd Quarter rainfall was below normal at all recording locations on Pohnpei Island. August rainfall was less than 10 inches at Palikir and at the Pohnpei International Airport, which was only 51% and 68% of average August rainfall, respectively. The southernmost atolls of Pohnpei State (Nukuoro and Kapingamarangi) had more rainfall during the 3 rd Quarter than did any location on Pohnpei Island or any of the other atolls. Kapingamarangi’s 3rd Quarter total of 50.78 inches was a remarkable 223% above average, and was the highest 3rd Quarter rainfall recorded in Pohnpei State. The high rainfall at Kapingamarangi was one of only a few atmospheric behaviors seen throughout the Pacific that are typically associated with El Niño. During the October PEAC conference call, it was noted that rainfall during early October had been abundant on Pohnpei Island. No sea inundations were reported for Pohnpei State during the 3rd Quarter.

 

Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2012

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Pohnpei Island
Pohnpei WSO
Rainfall (inches)
14.21
13.62
11.27
39.10
56.08
% of Normal
77%
82%
70%
77%
110%
Palikir
Rainfall (inches)
15.69
9.17
13.39
38.25
60.58
% of Normal
79%
51%
77%
69%
110%
Kolonia Airport
Rainfall (inches)
13.95
9.23
10.34
33.52
46.04
% of Normal
92%
68%
78%
80%
110%
Atolls of Pohnpei State
Nukuoro
Rainfall (inches)
16.09
15.68
13.94
45.71
36.75
% of Normal
112%
138%
127%
124%
100%
Pingelap
Rainfall (inches)
14.52
10.59
9.15
34.26
45.60
% of Normal
91%
71%
61%
75%
100%
Mwokilloa
Rainfall (inches)
14.51
13.11
12.18
39.80
41.85
% of Normal
96%
97%
92%
95%
100%
Kapingamarangi
Rainfall (inches)
20.65
15.57
14.56
50.78
21.36
% of Normal
198%
253%
247%
223%
95%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2012 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: Despite recent dryness on Pohnpei Island and on some of the northern atolls of Pohnpei State, computer models available to PEAC indicate that rainfall should be abundant at least through December 2012. Thereafter, through June of 2013, it is possible that localized dry conditions could occur on Pohnpei Island and on the northern atolls of the state. During any month from January through at least April, there could be a month or two at these locations during which the monthly rainfall is less than 10 inches. In the south, at Kapingamarangi and at Nukuoro, the rainfall (which has been high for the past few months) should be nearer to normal. During El Niño, there is a tendency for drier-than-normal conditions to persist at Pohnpei Island until May or June of the year following the wet part of the event. However, with the shift in the forecast from weak-El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions, we now expect rainfall across the State to be closer to normal.

A direct strike of any Pohnpei State location by a tropical storm or typhoon is not anticipated in the foreseeable future. Through December, one or two tropical disturbances may pass to the north and/or west of Pohnpei Island accompanied by some heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast rainfall for Pohnpei State from October 2012 through September 2013 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Pohnpei Islands and Atolls Kapingamarangi
October - December 2012
100%
(47.68 inches)
110%
(23.94 inches)
January - March 2013
95%
100%
April - June 2013
90% 100%
July - September 2013
100% 90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: January 15 2013 03:50:02 GMT

Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary

Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities