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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 4


Palau Flag Republic of Palau: Southwesterly monsoon flow dominated the weather of Palau over the past three months. Several of the western North Pacific basin tropical cyclones passed well north of Palau while moving westward toward the Philippines or northwestward towards Taiwan or Okinawa. This monsoon flow and the tropical cyclones passing to the north provided Palau with near-average rainfall. The highest 3 rd Quarter rainfall total recorded in Palau was at the international airport, where the 3-month total of 58.75 inches was 131% of normal. The rainfall at the airport typically is higher than at other Palau locations. At Peleliu, it is typically a little drier than at Koror and Babeldaob Island locations, but during the 3 rd Quarter of 2012, the rainfall total at Peleliu (50.93 inches and 114%) surpassed Koror’s total. Despite that, Koror’s 3-month total of 43.09 inches in the 3 rd Quarter was near average at 96%.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2012

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
16.36
13.72
13.01
43.09
49.34
% of Normal
91%
92%
110%
96%
110%
International
Airport
Rainfall (inches)
21.27
16.21
21.27
58.75
49.34
% of WSO
118%
108%
179%
131%
110%
Peleliu
Rainfall (inches)
18.82
14.97
17.14
50.93
49.34
% of WSO
104%
100%
145%
114%
110%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2012 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: Since ENSO-neutral conditions are now expected to dominate the climate pattern in the western North Pacific, we expect rainfall to be near normal without a period of significantly dry weather that usually follows an El Niño event. Occasional westerly winds could still affect Palau during November and December, and bring short periods of heavy rain. Tropical cyclone activity should be normal, which means that Palau could see a tropical storm pass to the north or even nearby through December, bringing a few days of gusty westerly winds, high surf on the western shores, and some heavy showers.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from October 2012 through September 2013 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
October - December 2012
100%
(37.36 inches)

January -March 2013

95%
April - June 2013
95%
July - October 2013
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: January 15 2013 03:50:01 GMT

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