Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Rainfall was near average to slightly below average across the island of Kosrae during the 3 rd Quarter of 2012. There was a moderate degree of variation of rainfall on the island. Wetter areas during the 3 rd Quarter were the Airport (northwest) receiving 54.53 inches (108%) of normal rainfall and Utwa (south) receiving 50.09 inches (99%). Drier areas were on the east side, with the Nautilus Hotel having the island’s lowest reading of 42.96 inches (85%) and the Capitol Village of Tofol having similar amounts with 45.24 inches (89%).

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2012

Climate Outlook: Computer forecasts indicate that rainfall will likely be near normal at Kosrae for the next several months. The earlier expectation of a weak El Niño brought with it the expectation of lower than normal rainfall during the period from January through at least April. The shift in the predictions from weak-El Niño to ENSO-neutral should increase winter and spring rainfall amounts since Kosrae normally has very high rainfall year-round. It should be noted that Kosrae is one of the locations in eastern Micronesia where rainfall has been on a gradual decline over its post-WWII period of record. But, the trade wind convergence between the northeast trades and the southeast trades should bring wet weather back to Kosrae the remainder of this year and the first half of next year.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from October 2012 through September 2013 is as follows:

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI