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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 4


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Rainfall was near average to slightly below average across the island of Kosrae during the 3 rd Quarter of 2012. There was a moderate degree of variation of rainfall on the island. Wetter areas during the 3 rd Quarter were the Airport (northwest) receiving 54.53 inches (108%) of normal rainfall and Utwa (south) receiving 50.09 inches (99%). Drier areas were on the east side, with the Nautilus Hotel having the island’s lowest reading of 42.96 inches (85%) and the Capitol Village of Tofol having similar amounts with 45.24 inches (89%).

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2012

Station  
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
3rd Qtr
Predicted
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
18.55
20.46
15.52
54.53
50.70
% of Normal
109%
124%
90%
108%
100%
Utwa
Rainfall (Inches)
18.20
18.82
13.07
50.09
50.70
% of SAWRS
107%
114%
76%
99%
100%
Nautilus Hotel
Rainfall (Inches)
17.33
14.69
10.94
42.96
50.70
% of SAWRS
102%
89%
64%
85%
100%
Tofol
Rainfall (Inches)
21.15
12.99
11.10
45.24
50.70
% of SAWRS
124%
79%
65%
89%
100%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2012 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: Computer forecasts indicate that rainfall will likely be near normal at Kosrae for the next several months. The earlier expectation of a weak El Niño brought with it the expectation of lower than normal rainfall during the period from January through at least April. The shift in the predictions from weak-El Niño to ENSO-neutral should increase winter and spring rainfall amounts since Kosrae normally has very high rainfall year-round. It should be noted that Kosrae is one of the locations in eastern Micronesia where rainfall has been on a gradual decline over its post-WWII period of record. But, the trade wind convergence between the northeast trades and the southeast trades should bring wet weather back to Kosrae the remainder of this year and the first half of next year.


Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from October 2012 through September 2013 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

October - December 2012

90%
(41.94 inches)

January - March 2013

100%

April - June 2013

110%

July - September 2013

100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: January 15 2013 03:50:01 GMT

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