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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 4


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Chuuk State: Rainfall was near normal to above normal across Chuuk State during the 3 rd Quarter of 2012. Two stations, Ettal and Fananu, had a month with less than 10 inches during the 3 rd Quarter, and two stations , WSO Chuuk and Losap , had a month with more than 20 inches. Losap had the highest 3 rd Quarter total of 54.61 inches (143%) and Fananu had the lowest total for the 3 rd Quarter of 31.93 inches (84%). Chuuk State was located at the eastern reach of the monsoonal flow, and several tropical disturbances formed in the region that contributed to the observed abundant rainfall. In early October, high surf of 7-10 feet on the north side of Chuuk Lagoon generated by a distant typhoon was responsible for a boating accident that fortunately only resulted in minor injuries.

Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2012

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr Predicted
Chuuk Lagoon
Chuuk WSO
Rainfall (inches)
16.92
21.78
10.04
48.74
42.02
% of Normal
140%
149%
87%
128%
110%
Piis Panew
Rainfall (inches)
13.34
13.98
14.96
42.28
42.02
% of WSO
110%
96%
130%
111%
110%
Southern Mortlocks
Lukunoch
Rainfall (inches)
13.06
10.26
15.02
38.36
38.20
% of Lukunoch
85%
79%
148%
100%
100%
Ettal
Rainfall (inches)
16.52
12.30
8.07
36.89
38.20
% of Lukunoch
108%
94%
79%
96%
100%
Ta
Rainfall (inches)
18.00
15.45
10.23
43.68
38.20
% of Lukunoch
117%
118%
78%
113%
100%
Namoluk
Rainfall (inches)
14.41
11.63
11.38
37.42
38.20
% of Lukunoch
94%
89%
112%
97%
100%
Northern Atolls
Fananu
Rainfall (inches)
7.72
14.02
10.19
31.93
42.02
% of WSO
64%
96%
88%
84%
110%
Onoun
Rainfall (inches)
14.39
12.96
15.57
42.92
42.02
% of WSO
119%
89%
135%
112%
110%
Northern Mortlocks
Losap
Rainfall (inches)
10.31
23.83
20.47
54.61
42.02
% of WSO
85%
164%
178%
143%
110%
Nama
Rainfall (inches)
10.70
19.13
10.30
40.13
42.02
% of WSO
88%
131%
89%
105%
110%
Western Atolls
Polowat
Rainfall (inches)
12.48
13.18
14.46
40.12
36.29
% of WSO
89%
88%
109%
95%
95%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2012 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: Conditions in Chuuk State are anticipated to be a little wetter than normal for the next month or two, and then transition to a slightly drier than normal conditions during the first few months of 2013. Typically, in the winter and spring that follow El Niño, Chuuk State experiences a prolonged reduction of rainfall. The dryness is most severe after a strong El Niño, but can be severe during moderate events as well. With the current conditions at the borderline of El Niño, and only a few months left for El Niño to actually materialize, it is not likely that Chuuk State will face widespread and prolonged dry conditions during the first half of 2013. Instead, the rainfall will likely be slightly below normal during the first four to five months of 2013, with a month or two of localized very dry conditions occurring randomly at several of the islands or atolls during the first six months of 2013. For the next two months, there is a low risk (1-in-15, or 7%) for a tropical storm or typhoon to develop and pass within the boundaries of Chuuk State.

Predictions for Chuuk State from October 2012 through September 2013 are as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Chuuk Lagoon, and Nama
Polowat
Northern Atolls

Mortlocks

October - December 2012
110%
(39.11 inches)
100%
(35.55 inches)
120%
(35.55 inches)
110%
(39.11 inches)
January - March 2013
90%
85%
85%
90%
April - June 2013
90%
90%
90%
95%
July - September 2013
100%
95%
100%
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: January 15 2013 03:49:57 GMT

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