American Samoa: Through the heart of its dry season (roughly June through October), American Samoa was dry during the first two months and wet in September.

American Samoa Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2012

Climate Outlook: Computer forecasts and a consensus of outlooks from several regional meteorological centers indicate that rainfall in American Samoa is likely to be near normal for the next few months as the next rainy season becomes established.

The rainy season and the cyclone/hurricane season of 2012-2013 in the American Samoa region are about to begin. Anticipated atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño favor a near-normal distribution of tropical cyclone activity in the region of American Samoa. Recent seasonal forecasts from the Australia Bureau of Meteorology have called for a near average cyclone season in all Australian waters. The threat of a direct strike by a hurricane at some location within American Samoa will be at its typical level of risk, normally on the order of 15-20% or once every 5 to 6 years.

Forecast rainfall for American Samoa from October 2012 through September 2013 is as follows:

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI