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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 4


American Samoa Flag American Samoa: Through the heart of its dry season (roughly June through October), American Samoa was dry during the first two months and wet in September.

American Samoa Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2012

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Pago Pago WSO
Rainfall (inches)
5.84
3.19
12.73
21.76
18.70
% of Normal
93%
48%
190%
111%
95%
A'asufou
Rainfall (inches)
13.84
9.30
23.54*
46.68*
36.13
% of Normal
105%
63%
150%
107%
95%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2012 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
*Estimated from xmACIS averages.

Climate Outlook: Computer forecasts and a consensus of outlooks from several regional meteorological centers indicate that rainfall in American Samoa is likely to be near normal for the next few months as the next rainy season becomes established.

The rainy season and the cyclone/hurricane season of 2012-2013 in the American Samoa region are about to begin. Anticipated atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño favor a near-normal distribution of tropical cyclone activity in the region of American Samoa. Recent seasonal forecasts from the Australia Bureau of Meteorology have called for a near average cyclone season in all Australian waters. The threat of a direct strike by a hurricane at some location within American Samoa will be at its typical level of risk, normally on the order of 15-20% or once every 5 to 6 years.

Forecast rainfall for American Samoa from October 2012 through September 2013 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

October - December 2012
(Onset of Rainy Season)
90%
(31.13 inches - Pago Pago)
January - March 2013
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
100%
April - May 2013
(Onset of Next Dry Season)
100%
June - October 2013
(Heart of Next Dry Season)
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: January 15 2013 03:49:57 GMT

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