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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Yap State: During the first half of 2012, rainfall was near normal across most of Yap Island, with all but one location (Maap) having a six-month total within five inches of the WSO average of 46.78 inches. In the outer islands, the 2012 first-half rainfall at Ulithi was near normal. Woleai was moderately drier than normal, with a very dry January accounting for approximately half of the deficit in the first-half total. One of the basin’s named tropical cyclones (STY Guchol) passed very close to Ulithi on 21-22 June while it was in its early stages of development, providing abundant rainfall and some gusty winds. The name “Guchol” was assigned to tropical cyclone 05W by the Japan Meteorological Agency using a list of tropical cyclone names that has been populated with contributions from nearly all the typhoon-prone countries of the western North Pacific. In this case, the name “Guchol” was provided by Micronesia, and is the Yapese word for the spice turmeric. No significant damage or injuries were reported for this tropical cyclone during its passage through Yap State.

Yap State Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2012

Station   April May June 2nd Qtr
1st Half
Yap Island
Yap WSO
Rainfall (inches)
5.00
11.14
11.95
28.09
44.72
% of Normal
86%
123%
94%
102%
96%
Dugor
Rainfall (inches)
3.33
13.02
12.34
28.69
47.07
% of WSO
58%
144%
97%
104%
101%
Gilman
Rainfall (inches)
4.86
11.95
14.84
31.65
50.16
% of WSO
84%
131%
117%
115%
107%
Luweech
Rainfall (inches)
3.53
7.70
15.45
26.68
41.02
% of WSO
61%
85%
122%
97%
88%
Maap
Rainfall (inches)
6.04
5.08
11.27
22.39
33.30
% of WSO
105%
56%
89%
81%
71%
North Fanif
Rainfall (inches)
4.26
9.63
14.73
28.62
49.68
% of WSO
74%
106%
116%
104%
106%
Rumung
Rainfall (inches)
3.40
12.99
13.36
29.75
45.95
% of WSO
59%
143%
105%
108%
98%
Tamil
Rainfall (inches)
3.78
16.09
10.19
30.06
46.15
% of WSO
66%
178%
80%
109%
99%
Outer Islands
Ulithi
Rainfall (inches)
3.98
8.48
12.20
24.66
42.22
% of Normal
81%
110%
113%
105%
106%
Woleai
Rainfall (inches)
6.19
10.75
9.22
26.16
49.62
% of Normal
56%
88%
71%
72%
79%


Climate Outlook: A continuation of near normal to above normal rainfall is anticipated for all islands of Yap State for at least the next three months and probably through the end of the year. Rainfall patterns and the basin’s tropical cyclone distribution during a weak El Niño climate favor wet conditions on Yap and a normal risk of a typhoon. The odds of gale-force winds or greater from a tropical cyclone on Yap Island or any of its northern atolls, will be near normal (roughly 10-15%). Dry conditions often become established within Yap State toward the end of an El Niño year, and extend into the first few months of the year that follows. The rainfall forecasts below reflect this scenario.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from July 2012 through June 2013 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
July - September 2012
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
120%
(51.90 inches)
95%
(38.29 inches)
October - December 2012
(End of Next Rainy Season)
110% 95%
January - March 2013
(Heart of Next Dry Season)
85% 85%
April - June 2013
(Onset of Next Rainy Season)
90% 90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: December 12 2012 23:18:28 GMT

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