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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 3


RMI Flag Republic of the Marshall Islands: Rainfall during the 1st half of 2012 was near normal to below normal across the RMI. Most monthly totals were at or below 10 inches at all atolls. One notable exception was the 10.82 inches at Kwajalein during May 2012, which was due in large part to a three-day wet spell with a total of 7.74 inches. The June daily rainfall distribution on Kwajalein was even more lopsided with 5.52 inches of the June total of 8.08 inches falling on a single day! The total that day was the 8th highest 24-hour rainfall recorded on Kwajalein in its post WWII climate time series. Otherwise, persistent moderate dryness was the dominant pattern, and there were some water supply concerns. On Majuro, the municipal drinking water reservoir (with a capacity of 33 million gallons) had fallen to 17 million gallons. To keep up with demand, there must be roughly ten inches of rainfall per month. Otherwise, the reservoir levels fall, and very strict water hours are put in place.

Republic of the Marshall Islands Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2012

Station   April May June 2nd Qtr
1st Half
RMI Central and Southern Atolls
Majuro WSO
Rainfall (inches)
9.14
5.96
8.89
23.99
49.47
% of Normal
89%
53%
77%
73%
88%
Arno
Rainfall (inches)
10.63
5.06
7.89
23.58
44.76
% of Normal
103%
45%
68%
71%
80%
Mili
Rainfall (inches)
6.12
7.41
10.62
24.15
36.37
% of Normal
60%
66%
92%
73%
65%
Alinglaplap
Rainfall (inches)
4.29
5.88
8.65
18.82
31.60
% of Normal
48%
56%
82%
63%
67%
Jaluit
Rainfall (inches)
5.32
6.44
8.90
20.66
38.88
% of Normal
52%
58%
77%
63%
70%
RMI Northern Atolls
Kwajalein
Rainfall (inches)
3.58
10.82
8.08
22.48
31.66
% of Normal
47%
108%
84%
83%
81%
Wotje
Rainfall (inches)
0.20**
4.32
4.23
8.75
N/A
% of Normal
3%
46%
46%
34%
N/A
**Value may be a partial reading.

Climate Outlook: As El Niño develops in the latter half of 2012, rainfall should be near normal to above normal through the end of the year. Were the El Niño to become moderate or strong, then the first few months of 2013 could see some persistent dryness with impacts on water supply. For now, a short period of moderate dryness in early 2012 is indicated in the forecasts below.

Forecast rainfall for the Republic of the Marshall Islands from July 2012 through June 2013 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
South of 6° N
6° N to 8° N
North of 8° N 
July - September 2012
100%
(36.94 inches)
110%
(40.63 inches)
110%
(39.90 inches)

October - December 2012

100%
120%
120%
January - March 2013
100%
90%
85%
April - June 2013
90%
90%
90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: December 12 2012 23:18:27 GMT

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