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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State: During the first half of 2012, rainfall totals ranged from below normal (e.g., Pingelap and Mwoakilloa), to near normal (e.g., Pohnpei WSO), to above normal (e.g., Palikir and Kapingamarangi). May was very wet on Pohnpei Island, and June was extremely wet at Kapingamarangi. A dry spell that began in late March and continued into early April affected some of the northern islands of Chuuk State, Pohnpei Island and the eastern islands of Pohnpei State, Kosrae, and some of the northern atolls of the RMI. This dryness on Pohnpei Island and some of the eastern atolls caused many residents to be concerned. The PEAC in coordination with the Guam and Pohnpei weather offices made a very good forecast that the dryness would not last long, and that normal to above-normal rainfall would return within a few weeks (i.e., by May) to most of Pohnpei State. Palikir’s 2012 first half total of 122.75 inches was the highest in Pohnpei State, and the highest among all observing locations in Micronesia.

Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2012

Station   April May June 2nd Qtr
1st Half
Pohnpei Island
Pohnpei WSO
Rainfall (inches)
8.31
23.03
14.86
46.20
83.03
% of Normal
51%
120%
87%
88%
92%
Palikir
Rainfall (inches)
18.52
26.10
19.36
63.98
122.75
% of Normal
104%
126%
105%
112%
126%
Kolonia Airport
Rainfall (inches)
7.57
26.18
13.56
47.31
84.78
% of Normal
56%
167%
96%
109%
115%
Atolls of Pohnpei State
Nukuoro
Rainfall (inches)
12.29
14.14
11.60
38.03
90.21
% of Normal
82%
96%
95%
91%
116%
Pingelap
Rainfall (inches)
8.29
12.77
10.03
31.09
65.02
% of Normal
48%
75%
62%
62%
73%
Mwokilloa
Rainfall (inches)
5.64
11.64
11.79
29.07
56.33
% of Normal
42%
74%
84%
67%
76%
Kapingamarangi
Rainfall (inches)
13.91
17.24
24.68
55.83
86.20
% of Normal
102%
167%
340%
179%
131%


Climate Outlook: Near- normal to above-normal rainfall is anticipated on Pohnpei Island and the atolls of Pohnpei State for the next several months. The heart of the dry season at Kapingamarangi is during August through October, when normal monthly rainfall is typically between 4-6 inches. Because of persistent heavy showers anchored near the equator (a typical effect of El Niño), it is likely to remain much wetter than normal at Kapingamarangi through the upcoming months of its normal dry season. Unless it is El Niño, tropical storms and typhoons do not typically affect Pohnpei State. With El Niño developing in the latter half of 2012, it is likely that a few tropical disturbances and perhaps a monsoon depression or two will pass through the State contributing to abundant rainfall. As the El Niño matures and begins to wane in early 2013, it is possible that persistent moderate dryness could occur throughout Pohnpei State during January through April 2013, but severe dry conditions are not expected at this time.

Forecast rainfall for Pohnpei State from July 2012 through June 2013 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Pohnpei Islands and Atolls Kapingamarangi
July - September 2012
110%
(56.08 inches)
120%
(26.98 inches)
October - December 2012
100% 100%
January - March 2013
90% 100%
April - June 2013
90% 90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: December 12 2012 23:18:25 GMT

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