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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 3


Palau Flag Republic of Palau: Rainfall throughout the Republic of Palau was generally near normal during the first half of 2012, ranging from a six-month total of 56.58 inches (86%) at Peleliu to 71.92 inches (109%) at the Palau International Airport. The six-month totals at Koror and Nekken were between these two with 63.31 inches (96%) and 67.96 inches (103%), respectively. This distribution of rainfall is typical; although last year, Koror had the highest 2011 first-half total with 103.03 inches during what was to become the island nation’s wettest year on record! Half of 2012’s eight early season tropical cyclones developed close enough to Palau to bring some heavy showers accompanied by moderately gusty southwest winds. In general, residents of Palau perceived their weather and climate of the first half of 2012 to be normal. Of note: the sea level at Palau increased by over three inches from May to June to stand at +9.0 inches above normal. At other islands, the sea level did not increase further, or saw a slight fall. During El Niño, the sea level typically falls at Palau and across Micronesia. Please refer to the sea level discussion later in this newsletter for more information.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2012

Station   April May June 2nd Qtr
1st Half
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
8.79
14.49
16.54
39.82
63.31
% of Normal
101%
121%
96%
105%
96%
Nekken
Rainfall (inches)
7.90
17.28
16.83
42.01
67.96
% of Normal
91%
144%
97%
111%
103%
International
Airport
Rainfall (inches)
12.26
14.28
17.12
43.66
71.92
% of Normal
141%
119%
99%
115%
109%
Peleliu
Rainfall (inches)
7.76
12.58
11.05
31.39
56.58
% of Normal
90%
105%
64%
83%
86%

Climate Outlook: In the anticipated onset of El Niño, Palau should continue to receive normal or above-normal rainfall for the next few months. Were the El Niño to become moderate or strong, then persistent dryness may become established at the end of the year and extend into early 2013. For now, the forecasts below reflect a moderate drying in early 2013. Two or three episodes of gusty (25 to 35 kt) southwest winds are anticipated in the coming months, with the greatest risk of these events during late August through November. No direct strike of Palau by a tropical cyclone is expected, although if it were to occur, it would likely be late in the year (i.e., late November through December).

Forecast rainfall for Palau from July 2012 through June 2013 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
July - September 2012
120%
(53.82 inches)
October - December 2012
100%
January - March 2013
85%
April - June 2013
90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: December 12 2012 23:18:27 GMT

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