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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Every month except February was drier than normal across Kosrae during the first half of 2012. The dryness in early 2012 was likely due to a residual La Niña pattern of rainfall that had dominated during 2011. Continued dryness at Kosrae for the 2nd Quarter of 2012 is not anticipated. Despite the dry pattern, rainfall deficits were not extreme, and there were no reported problems with water supplies.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2012

Station  
April
May
June
2nd Qtr
1st Half
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
14.70
15.35
14.56
44.61
89.02
% of Normal
68%
82%
77%
74%
82%
Utwa
Rainfall (Inches)
14.05
14.66
14.03
42.74
86.25
% of WSO
65%
81%
74%
72%
79%
Nautilus Hotel
Rainfall (Inches)
15.69
17.58
13.28
46.55
93.56
% of WSO
72%
94%
70%
78%
86%
Tofol
Rainfall (Inches)
14.50
12.60
12.25
39.35
79.85
% of WSO
67%
67%
64%
66%
73%


Climate Outlook: Near-normal rainfall is anticipated on Kosrae for the next few months. As El Niño develops in the latter half of 2012, it is possible that one or two tropical cyclones in the tropical depression stage or weak tropical storm stage will pass to the north of the island and bring heavy rain and gusty (20-25 kt) southwesterly winds. In the past ten years, dominated by La Niña, there have not been any notable episodes of strong southwesterly winds at Kosrae. As El Niño matures and begins to wane in early 2013, it is possible that persistent moderate dryness could occur across Kosrae during January through April 2013, but severe dry conditions are not expected at this time.


Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from July 2012 through June 2013 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
July - September 2012
95%
(48.17 inches)
October - December 2012
100%
January - March 2013
85%
April - June 2013
90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Honolulu, HI 96822
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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: December 12 2012 23:18:28 GMT

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