Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center
banner piece
  banner piece
Local forecast by
"City, St" or Zip Code
Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Chuuk State: Rainfall was abundant throughout Chuuk State during the first half of 2012, with some locations in the Mortlock island group receiving more than 70 inches of rain during the first half of 2012. There was, as usual, a slight north-south gradient reflecting the typical placement of deep convection across the southern portions of the state in the first few months of the year. Some of the northernmost atolls (e.g., Fananu and Onoun) had some dry months early in the year, and were concerned about water supply. During May and June, there was a period of heightened convective activity in and around Chuuk State that contributed to the formation of two of the basin’s early tropical cyclones (Sanvu and Guchol). This convection brought abundant rain to the region in May and June. During the first half of 2011 and also during the first half of 2012, Ta Atoll had the highest observed 6-month total rainfall within Chuuk State with 97.73 inches and 84.58 inches, respectively. Despite the heavy rainfall, there were no reports of any problems with flooding or any occurrences of landslides noted in the high islands of Chuuk Lagoon.

Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2012

Station   April May June 2st Qtr 1st Half
Chuuk Lagoon
Chuuk WSO
Rainfall (inches)
5.02
19.56
15.27
39.85
67.59
% of Normal
41%
160%
130%
110%
110%
Piis Panew
Rainfall (inches)
7.29
18.13
12.89
38.31
67.10
% of WSO
59%
148%
110%
106%
109%
Southern Mortlocks
Lukunoch
Rainfall (inches)
8.60
12.35
14.53
35.48
66.27
% of WSO
70%
101%
124%
98%
108%
Ettal
Rainfall (inches)
7.29
9.94
13.06
30.29
75.33
% of WSO
59%
81%
111%
83%
122%
Ta
Rainfall (inches)
6.40
21.46
15.15
43.01
84.58
% of WSO
52%
175%
129%
118%
138%
Northern Atolls
Fananu
Rainfall (inches)
1.64
9.39
6.60
17.63
24.90
% of Normal
13%
77%
56%
49%
40%
Onoun
Rainfall (inches)
4.82
15.53
15.12
35.47
60.23
% of Normal
39%
127%
129%
98%
98%
Northern Mortlocks
Losap
Rainfall (inches)
7.75
14.62
9.33
31.70
58.97
% of Normal
63%
120%
80%
87%
96%
Nama
Rainfall (inches)
6.99
16.47
14.10
37.56
78.76
% of Normal
57%
135%
120%
103%
128%
Namoluk
Rainfall (inches)
10.27
12.17
11.68
34.12
63.03
% of Normal
83%
100%
100%
94%
102%
Western Atolls
Polowat
Rainfall (inches)
6.06
7.53
8.98
16.39
32.59
% of Normal
101%
84%
72%
82%
72%

Climate Outlook: With the Pacific basin climate progressing into El Niño, abundant rainfall should continue throughout Chuuk State for at least the next several months. The monsoon trough should episodically extend into Chuuk State with its embedded tropical disturbances and monsoon depression stages of developing tropical cyclones bringing periods of heavy rain showers to the region. The weather for the next few months in Chuuk State will feature periods of heavy rain showers with some several-day breaks of hot, dry weather. One or two occurrences of gale-force wind associated with a developing tropical cyclone may affect Chuuk Lagoon or atolls to the north, especially in the fall of 2012. This represents a near normal risk of hazardous effects from tropical cyclones.

Predictions for Chuuk State from July 2012 through June 2013 are as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Chuuk Lagoon, Losap, and Nama

Atolls

Polowat
Northern Islands
Mortlocks
July - September 2012
120%
(45.84 inches)
90%
(32.57 inches)
120%
(45.84 inches)
120%
(45.84 inches)
October - December 2012
120%
95%
100%
120%
January - March 2013
85%
85%
85%
90%
April - June 2013
90%
85%
85%
95%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: December 12 2012 23:18:28 GMT

Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary

Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities