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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 3


American Samoa Flag American Samoa: American Samoa is now passing through the heart of its dry season. The 2011-2012 rainy season saw nothing out of the ordinary. Rainfall was near normal, and there were no damaging tropical cyclones. Recent strong southeast trade winds were a factor in driving sea levels higher in the harbor at Pago Pago.

American Samoa Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2012

Station   April May June 2nd Qtr
1st Half
Pago Pago WSO
Rainfall (inches)
8.41
12.15
6.13
26.69
60.61
% of Normal
70%
122%
83%
91%
92%
A'asufou
Rainfall (inches)
23.02
*
*
*
*
% of Normal
130%
*
*
*
*
* Missing data

Climate Outlook: Climate models and simple persistence of current conditions favor a continuation of near-normal rainfall over the next three-month period. The next rainy season (Oct 2012 - Apr 2013) is anticipated to have a normal or early onset with above-average rainfall. Weak El Niño conditions persisting through the latter half of 2012 should favor abundant rainfall and above-average tropical cyclone activity in the waters from Fiji through Tonga and into American Samoa. The risk of tropical cyclones in the regional waters of American Samoa becomes non-negligible in late November 2012, and an above-normal risk will persist through early 2013.

Forecast rainfall for American Samoa from July 2012 through June 2013 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

July - September 2012
(Heart of Dry Season)
100%
(19.68 inches - Pago Pago)
October - December 2012
(Onset of Next Rainy Season)
120%
January - March 2013
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
120%
April - June 2013
(Onset of Next Dry Season)
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: December 12 2012 23:18:29 GMT

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