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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 2


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia
Yap State: January 2012 was very dry throughout Yap State, with only 1-3 inches recorded across Yap Island. Rainfall recovered to above normal values during February and March. February, March and April are typically the heart of the dry season in Yap State with average monthly totals just under 6 inches at most locations. Because of January’s extreme dryness, the higher rainfall during February and March 2012 was unable to make up the difference, and the 2012 1st Quarter rainfall totals were below normal throughout most of Yap State. Last year, Yap Island was very wet in the 1st Quarter, with roughly 30 inches (150%) of rainfall accumulation. Ulithi’s 17.56 inches of rain was 107% of normal, and the 3-month total of 23.46 inches at Woleai was 89% of normal. The weather conditions were generally tranquil throughout Yap State during the 1st Quarter of 2012.

Yap State Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2012

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
Yap Island
Yap WSO
Rainfall (inches)
2.11
6.09
8.43
16.63
21.20
% of Normal
29%
102%
141%
86%
110%
Dugor
Rainfall (inches)
1.96
8.45
7.97
18.38
21.20
% of WSO
27%
141%
134%
95%
110%
Gilman
Rainfall (inches)
1.97
8.77
7.77
18.51
21.20
% of WSO
27%
147%
130%
96%
110%
Luweech
Rainfall (inches)
1.17
7.03
6.14
14.34
21.20
% of WSO
16%
118%
103%
75%
110%
Maap
Rainfall (inches)
1.54
4.30
5.07
10.91
21.20
% of WSO
21%
72%
85%
57%
110%
North Fanif
Rainfall (inches)
2.92
8.70
9.44
21.06
21.20
% of WSO
40%
145%
158%
109%
110%
Rumung
Rainfall (inches)
2.69
5.66
7.85
16.20
21.20
% of WSO
37%
95%
132%
84%
110%
Tamil
Rainfall (inches)
1.57
6.29
8.23
16.09
21.20
% of WSO
21%
105%
138%
83%
110%
Outer Islands
Ulithi
Rainfall (inches)
3.53
5.66
8.37
17.56
15.56
% of Normal
57%
111%
165%
107%
95%
Woleai
Rainfall (inches)
2.79
10.81
9.86
23.46
25.16
% of Normal
26%
144%
119%
89%
95%
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2012 made in 4th Quarter 2011 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: Similar to this time last year, computer forecasts and a consensus of outlooks from several regional meteorological centers indicate that rainfall throughout Yap State is likely to be slightly above normal for at least the next few months as the rainy season becomes established. Somewhat above normal rainfall is anticipated to occur throughout Yap State for the foreseeable future.

There is a normal risk (roughly a 10-15% chance – that is, once in 7 to 10 years) of a damaging TC in Yap State or its outer atolls during 2012. Most TCs affecting Yap State form near Chuuk or Guam and pass to the north of Yap Island. The northern atolls of Yap State (e.g., Ulithi and Fais) are probably most vulnerable to typhoons, but two recent typhoons (Mitag – March 2002, and Sudal – April 2004) made direct hits on Yap Island.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from April 2012 through March 2013 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
April - June 2012
(Onset of Rainy Season)
120%
(32.63 inches)
100%
(36.26 inches)
July - September 2012
(Heart of Rainy Season)
100% 100%
October - December 2012
(End of Rainy Season)
120% 100%
January - March 2013
(Heart of Next Dry Season)
110% 100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 11 2012 23:00:47 GMT

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