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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 2


PEAC CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Based on available guidance1 and the forecast behavior of ENSO, the PEAC TC outlook for the upcoming western North Pacific typhoon season of 2012 is for slightly below normal activity, considering: (1) the late start of the season to-date; (2) the recent widespread trend toward reduced numbers of TCs; and, (3) the available guidance noted above. There may be a notable westward shift of TC activity in the first half of 2012 as the lingering effects of La Niña still exert some influence on the weather of Micronesia. By fall of 2012, under a scenario of ENSO-neutral conditions, the TC activity in the western North Pacific (and in Micronesia) should be near average to slightly below average for cyclone numbers. Cyclone formation locations and cyclone tracks should also be relatively normal during the second half of 2012. If El Niño develops late in 2012, then there could be slightly above normal activity within Micronesia from September through December. Even near-normal activity within Micronesia will be a large increase over the very quiet conditions of the past several years (see island summaries for further specific details). The latest TC outlooks and forecast updates from Paul Stanko, the TSR, and the City University of Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric research will be provided in the 3rd Quarter Newsletter due in mid-July.


1The PEAC tropical cyclone forecasts for 2012 are based on forecasts of the status of ENSO and input from three seasonal outlooks for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific basin: (1) The Guam Weather Forecast Office (WFO), (2) The City University of Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, under the direction of Dr. J. C-L. Chan, and (3) The Benfield Hazard Research Centre, University College London, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) research group, UK, led by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders.



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 09 2012 00:16:51 GMT

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