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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 2


RMI Flag Republic of the Marshall Islands: During the first three months of the year, the RMI enters its normal dry season. During this period of 2012, it was drier than normal at nearly all RMI locations, with only Majuro Atoll (Majuro WSO and Laura) and Utirik reporting above normal rainfall. Majuro WSO had the highest RMI first quarter rainfall total of 25.48 inches (111%), while nearby Arno Atoll had the second highest reported 1st Quarter rainfall total of 21.18 inches (93%). At Kwajalein, the 3-month total of 9.18 inches was 77% of normal. This was far lower than the total (28.51) during the very wet 1st Quarter of 2011. Further south at Mili, it was quite dry. Mili’s 1st Quarter total of 12.22 inches was only 53% of average. The very low monthly totals of rainfall recorded at Wotje appear too low, but based on other totals in the northern RMI, it is likely that they did have below normal rainfall. Just recently (early April 2012) Majuro had a 5 inch rainfall event. During April (through the 12th) Majuro received 6.91 inches, putting this station in a good position to surpass its normal April monthly rainfall of 10.28 inches. At the same time, Kwajalein remained very dry.


Republic of the Marshall Islands Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2012

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
RMI Central and Southern Atolls
Majuro WSO
Rainfall (inches)
8.27
4.46
12.75
25.48
21.72
% of Normal
98%
73%
154%
111%
95%
Laura
Rainfall (inches)
8.66
3.43
12.00
24.73
21.72
% of Normal
103%
56%
145%
108%
95%
Alinglaplap
Rainfall (inches)
4.29
3.80
4.69
12.78
16.41
% of Normal
66%
81%
76%
74%
95%
Arno
Rainfall (inches)
7.19
2.35
11.64
21.18
21.72
% of Normal
85%
38%
141%
93%
95%
Jaluit
Rainfall (inches)
3.99
4.39
9.84
18.22
22.86
% of Normal
47%
71%
119%
80%
100%
Mili
Rainfall (inches)
8.04
0.77
3.41
12.22
21.72
% of Normal
95%
13%
41%
53%
100%
RMI Northern Atolls
Kwajalein
Rainfall (inches)
4.22
3.01
1.95
9.18
11.30
% of Normal
93%
93%
48%
77%
95%
Wotje
Rainfall (inches)
0.49
0.30
0.05
0.84
10.50
% of Normal
11%
10%
1%
8%
95%
Utirik
Rainfall (inches)
1.24
0.68
8.41
10.33
9.61
% of Normal
32%
25%
241%
102%
95%
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2012 made in 4th Quarter 2011 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.


Climate Outlook: The rainy season in the RMI slowly builds from April through June, and then extends through the final quarter of the year. For the next three months, the rainfall should be near normal at Majuro and other atolls in the central and southern portions of the RMI. Further north at places such as Kwajalein, Utirik and Wotje, the April-June rainfall should be near normal or slightly below normal. Thereafter, near normal rainfall should prevail throughout the RMI for the remainder of the year. If El Niño develops in the latter half of 2012, then there is a very small chance (5%, or 1-in-20 odds) that a TC in its depression stage or early tropical storm stage may pass through the RMI, most likely late in the year (i.e., November 2012 through January of 2013).



Predicted rainfall for the RMI from April 2012 through March 2013 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Jaluit and Mili
Majuro
Northern Atolls

April - June 2012
(Onset of Rainy Season)

100%
(33.92 inches)
100%
(33.92 inches)
90%
(22.60 inches)

July - September 2012
(Heart of Rainy Season)

100%
100%
100%
October - December 2012
(End of Rainy Season)
100%
110%
110%
January - March 2013
(Dry Season)
90%
90%
90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 12 2012 00:14:57 GMT

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