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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 2


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State: The 2012 first quarter rainfall was near normal to above normal at locations on Pohnpei Island. Of all the atolls of Pohnpei State, only Nukuoro had above normal rainfall in the 1st Quarter. The rest recorded below normal rainfall in this time period. Nukuoro had a large amount of rain (28.12 inches) during March. The Nukuoro total of 52.18 inches was exceeded only at Palikir, Pohnpei Island, where 58.77 inches (145%) was recorded during the first quarter. A recent dry spell beginning in late March and continuing into early April has affected some of the northern islands of Chuuk State, Pohnpei Island and the eastern islands of Pohnpei State, Kosrae, and some of the northern atolls of the RMI. While recent dryness on Pohnpei Island and some of the eastern atolls has caused many residents to be concerned, it is anticipated that normal to above normal rainfall should return within a few weeks to most of Pohnpei State.


Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2012

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
Pohnpei Island
Pohnpei WSO
Rainfall (inches)
10.75
13.17
12.91
36.83
37.41
% of Normal
82%
122%
95%
98%
100%
Palikir
Rainfall (inches)
21.62
17.28
19.87
58.77
40.43
% of Normal
153%
148%
136%
145%
100%
Kolonia Airport
Rainfall (inches)
9.95
15.23
12.29
37.47
30.64
% of Normal
93%
172%
111%
122%
100%
Nukuoro
Rainfall (inches)
9.84
14.22
28.12
52.18
35.90
% of Normal
75%
132%
208%
139%
100%
Pingelap
Rainfall (inches)
8.31
20.82
4.80
33.93
39.00
% of Normal
67%
171%
33%
87%
100%
Mwokilloa
Rainfall (inches)
8.57
11.57
7.12
27.26
30.64
% of Normal
80%
130%
64%
89%
100%
Kapingamarangi
Rainfall (inches)
9.94
6.61
13.82
30.37
20.76
% of Normal
95%
64%
100%
88%
60%
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2012 made in 4th Quarter 2011 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: Recent dryness on Pohnpei Island and on some of the eastern atolls of Pohnpei State should be replaced by normal rainfall in May, and thereafter rainfall should be normal to above normal throughout Pohnpei State for the remainder of the year. Pohnpei Island usually experiences its heaviest monthly rainfall during April through June. Although April has begun dry, it may be quite wet on Pohnpei Island during May and June of 2012, with 25-30 inches of rain possible in one of those months at the WSO or at Palikir.

A direct strike of any Pohnpei State location by a tropical storm or typhoon is not anticipated in the foreseeable future. If El Niño develops in the latter half of 2012, one or two tropical depressions or tropical storms may pass to the north of Pohnpei Island, but within range to produce heavy rainfall and gusty southwest winds on Pohnpei Island and possibly on some of the atolls. The greatest risk for these hazardous weather conditions will be during October through December. Also, if El Niño develops in the latter half of 2012, there could be some dry conditions in Pohnpei State during the 1st Quarter of 2013.

Forecast rainfall for Pohnpei State from April 2012 through March 2013 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Pohnpei Island Atolls Kapingamarangi
April - June 2012
110%
(58.75 inches)
110%
(58.75 inches)
95%
(29.72 inches)
July - September 2012
110% 100% 95%
October - December 2012
100%* 100%* 100%*
January - March 2013
95* 95* 100%*

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.
* Reflecting possible effects of El Niño.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 11 2012 23:45:30 GMT

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