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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 2


Palau Flag Republic of Palau: During the first three months of 2012, locations throughout Palau were very dry during January, and then wet during February and March. The dryness of January dominated the 1st Quarter rainfall totals, which were generally below normal except at the International Airport. The highest 1st Quarter rainfall total recorded in Palau was at the airport, which is typically higher than at other Palau locations. Peleliu is typically a bit drier than Koror and other locations, but during the 1st Quarter of 2012, the rainfall total at Peleliu surpassed that of Koror. Koror’s 3-month total of 23.49 inches was less than half of the total seen during the 1st Quarter of 2011. The calendar year 2011 ended with the highest annual rainfall total recorded at Koror in its historical record.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2012

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
3.65
10.81
9.03
23.49
33.62
% of Normal
34%
119%
110%
84%
120%
Nekken
Rainfall (inches)
4.04
11.65
10.26
25.95
33.62
% of WSO
38%
128%
125%
93%
120%
International
Airport
Rainfall (inches)
4.42
12.48
11.36
28.26
33.62
% of WSO
41%
137%
139%
101%
120%
Peleliu
Rainfall (inches)
3.15
14.00
8.04
25.19
33.48
% of Normal
29%
156%
98%
90%
120%
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2012 made in 4th Quarter 2011 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: As the state of the Pacific climate fades from La Niña and enters ENSO-neutral, monsoon activity should keep Palau wet over the next few months. If El Niño develops in the latter half of 2012, then the monsoon trough should migrate well to the north of Palau in late August through early October. This produces the slight dip in average rainfall seen in September. It also allows most of the TCs in the region to pass safely to the north of Palau during that time period, although gusty (25-30 mph) southwest winds with hazy skies are a typical weather pattern. Late in the year, the monsoon trough moves back to the south and is then closer to Palau. Late October through December is the most likely time for one of the western North Pacific basin’s final typhoons of 2012 to pass to the north or northeast of Palau, bringing a few days of gusty westerly winds, high surf on the western shores, and some heavy showers.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from April 2012 through March 2013 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
April - June 2012
(Onset of Rainy Season)
110%
(42.08 inches)

July - October 2012
(Heart of Rainy Season)

110%
October - December 2012
(End of Rainy Season)
100%
January -March 2013
(Next Dry Season)
95%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 12 2012 00:05:52 GMT

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