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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 2


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: With the exception of February (which was wet), Kosrae had below normal rainfall in the 1st Quarter of 2012, with rainfall totals below normal across the island. As at Pohnpei Island and some of the eastern atolls of Pohnpei State, Kosrae is experiencing a short-term dry spell that began in March and continues into April. As of April 12th, only 3.58 inches of rain has occurred. This is a pace that is far below normal for Kosrae’s typical wettest month of the year. At the Kosrae airport, there is typically over 20 inches of rainfall during April. Dryness at Kosrae is a relative term, and during the first quarter, all island rain recording locations had over 40 inches, with the highest reading of 47.01 inches (95%) seen at the Nautilus Hotel. During the first quarter of 2012, monthly rainfall values below 10 inches occurred, first at Tofol during January and then at the Airport and Utwa during March. Monthly rainfall totals below 10 inches are relatively rare on Kosrae, comprising about 20% of all 1st Quarter months, and 15% of all months.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2012

Station  
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
1st Qtr
Predicted
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
10.89
23.92
9.59
44.41
44.47
% of Normal
76%
146%
52%
90%
90%
Utwa
Rainfall (Inches)
12.03
22.61
8.87
43.51
44.47
% of Airport
84%
138%
48%
88%
90%
Nautilus Hotel
Rainfall (Inches)
10.03
24.94
12.04
47.01
44.47
% of Airport
70%
153%
65%
95%
90%
Tofol
Rainfall (Inches)
9.50
19.70
11.30
40.50
44.47
% of Airport
66%
120%
61%
82%
90%
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2012 made in 4th Quarter 2011 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: April, May, and June are normally the wettest months of the year at Kosrae. Although April began quite dry, near normal rainfall is likely to resume in May and continue thereafter. If El Niño develops in the latter half of 2012, it is possible that one or two TCs in the tropical depression stage or weak tropical storm stage will pass to the north of the island and bring heavy rain and gusty (20-25 kt) southwesterly winds. In the recent 10 years, dominated by La Niña, there have not been gusty southwesterly winds at Kosrae.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from April 2012 through March 2013 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

April - June 2012

100%*
(59.46 inches)

July - September 20112

100%

October - December 2012

100%

January - March 2013

90%**

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.
* Comprising a dry April and a wet May and June.
** Reflecting the effects of El Niño.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 11 2012 23:56:10 GMT

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