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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 2


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Chuuk State: As is typical for the first three months of the year, there was a sharp north-south rainfall gradient across Chuuk State. Many of the atolls to the north of 8° N (e.g., Fananu and Onoun) had a 1st Quarter rainfall total that was less than 25 inches. Some of the atolls between 5-6° N (e.g., Ettal and Ta) had over 40 inches of rainfall during the 1st Quarter. WSO Chuuk, in the middle at 7.47°N, had 27.74 inches (110%). January 2012 saw the most widespread below normal rainfall of the quarter across Chuuk State, and February had some of the most abundant rainfall. Residents of some of the northern atolls (e.g., Fananu) were somewhat concerned with low rainfall amounts during the first quarter of 2012. Polowat also was dry with only 59% of its normal first quarter rainfall. Most of the islands of Chuuk State have a short dry season, with the average monthly rainfall during February and March falling below 10 inches.

Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2012

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr Predicted
Chuuk Lagoon
Chuuk WSO
Rainfall (inches)
5.74
13.13
8.87
27.74
27.73
% of Normal
54%
212%
106%
110%
110%
Piis Panew
Rainfall (inches)
5.16
12.26
11.37
28.79
27.73
% of WSO
48%
198%
136%
114%
110%
Southern Mortlocks
Lukunor
Rainfall (inches)
7.22
11.06
12.51
30.79
35.34
% of Normal
68%
116%
104%
96%
110%
Ettal*
Rainfall (inches)
16.72
12.92
15.40
45.04
35.34
% of Normal
158%
136%
128%
140%
110%
Ta*
Rainfall (inches)
11.57
15.23
14.77
41.57
35.34
% of Normal
109%
160%
123%
129%
110%
Namoluk*
Rainfall (inches)
8.11
11.90
8.90
28.91
35.34
% of Normal
77%
125%
75%
90%
110%
Northern Atolls
Fananu**
Rainfall (inches)
2.17
3.61
1.49
7.27
18.91
% of WSO
27%
78%
24%
38%
100%
Onoun**
Rainfall (inches)
1.97
12.56
12.20
24.76
18.91
% of WSO
25%
270%
195%
131%
100%
Northern Mortlocks
Losap***
Rainfall (inches)
4.61
14.15
8.51
27.27
31.53
% of WSO
43%
180%
84%
95%
110%
Nama***
Rainfall (inches)
8.83
19.75
12.62
41.20
31.53
% of WSO
83%
251%
124%
144%
110%
Western Atolls
Polowat
Rainfall (inches)
3.81
5.37
2.91
12.09
18.44
% of Normal
48%
86%
47%
59%
90%
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2012 made in 4th Quarter 2011 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Ettal, Ta, and Namoluk normals based on Lukunor
** Fananu and Onoun normals based on 75% of WSO
*** Losap and Nama normals based on 50% of WSO and 50% of Lukunor

Climate Outlook: Conditions at Chuuk State are anticipated to continue to be wetter than normal. This is supported by long-range computer forecasts, and the known typical behavior of the weather and climate of Chuuk State. During times of a waning La Niña (the current scenario), or during the onset of El Niño, it tends to be wet throughout Chuuk State.

For the next five months (April 2012 through August 2012) there is a low risk (1-in-15, or 7%) of a tropical storm within the boundaries of Chuuk State. Later in the year (September through December), the risk of a tropical storm or typhoon occurring within the boundaries of Chuuk State will be higher (possibly 10-15%). In any case, these named cyclones, or their precursors will bring at least one or two episodes of heavy rain and gusty westerly winds across Chuuk State from September through December.

Predictions for Chuuk State from April 2012 through March 2013 are as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Chuuk Lagoon, Losap, and Nama
Polowat
Northern Atolls

Southern
Mortlocks

April - June 2012
115%
(40.87 inches)
95%
(33.78 inches)
100%
(35.55 inches)
110%
(39.10 inches)
July - September 2012
110%
95%
110%
100%
October - December 2012
110%
100%
110%
100%
January - March 2013
95%
95%
95%
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 11 2012 23:24:15 GMT

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