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Pacific ENSO Update

1st Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 1


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Yap State: During 2011, all Yap island locations were very wet, with annual totals of 150 inches or more. The 158.05 inches of rain at the Yap WSO during 2011 was 132% of normal. Rainfall was above normal during every month of 2011 at the Yap WSO, and also at most locations across Yap Island. Ulithi was also very wet with an annual total that was 140% of normal, but with 8 months above and 4 months below normal. Woleai was the only reporting location in Yap State that had below-normal rainfall. It is likely that all of the southern Yap State Islands had below-normal rainfall as La Niña frequently creates a high pressure ridge and improved weather over these islands. It is also possible that the archived normal values for this site are too high, and refinements and corrections to outer-island rainfall statistics remain important tasks for the PEAC Center and others. The monsoon trough was continually near Yap State during the rainy season of 2011, and the rains from the monsoon and from developing tropical cyclones in the monsoon trough contributed to abundant rainfall there. Aside from abundant rainfall, the weather was otherwise unremarkable in Yap State, and there were no serious impacts by tropical cyclones.

Yap State Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2011

Station   Oct Nov Dec 4th Qtr Annual
Yap Island
Yap WSO
Rainfall (inches)
12.32
9.92
9.91
32.15
158.05
% of Normal
103%
109%
110%
107%
132%
Dugor
Rainfall (inches)
19.12
12.36
12.38
43.86
179.59
% of WSO
160%
136%
138%
146%
150%
Gilman
Rainfall (inches)
13.44
11.15
9.94
34.53
160.59
% of WSO
112%
123%
111%
115%
134%
Luweech
Rainfall (inches)
10.86
9.28
10.19
30.33
149.09
% of WSO
91%
102%
113%
101%
124%
Maap
Rainfall (inches)
6.94
13.00
8.94
28.88
156.26
% of WSO
58%
143%
99%
96%
130%
North Fanif
Rainfall (inches)
15.61
12.62
7.49
35.72
171.15
% of WSO
130%
139%
83%
119%
143%
Rumung
Rainfall (inches)
11.22
12.04
8.08
31.34
147.82
% of WSO
94%
133%
90%
104%
123%
Tamil
Rainfall (inches)
17.27
13.40
9.85
40.52
158.86
% of WSO
144%
148%
110%
135%
132%
Outer Islands
Ulithi
Rainfall (inches)
9.60
13.46
10.68
33.74
142.69
% of Normal
94%
175%
140%
132%
140%
Woleai
Rainfall (inches)
8.64
5.79
7.50
21.93
82.42
% of Normal
64%
54%
66%
61%
59%


Climate Outlook: Yap State is entering its dry season. The months of February through April are the heart of the normal dry season. During 2012, it is anticipated that the most likely scenario would be for the current La Niña conditions to slowly fade back to ENSO-neutral by June or July. In this scenario, near-normal to above-normal rainfall is likely for most islands of Yap State through the dry season (February through May). The rainy season should begin on time in late May or early June, and abundant rainfall should occur throughout the upcoming rainy season. Tropical cyclone activity should be delayed through the first half of 2012, and then become near normal for the remainder of 2012. It is possible that one of the western North Pacific basin’s first tropical cyclones of the year could pass near Yap State in the months of April through June, but the risk of damage in Yap State from such a tropical cyclone is small because it would likely intensify to the west of Yap State.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from January 2012 through December 2012 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
January - March 2012
(Heart of Dry Season)
100%
(18.83 inches)
90%
(23.83 inches)
April - June 2012
(Onset of Rainy Season)
110% 90%
July - September 2012
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
110% 100%
October - December 2012
(End of Next Rainy Season)
110% 100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: March 22 2012 05:05:10 GMT

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