Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center
banner piece
  banner piece
Local forecast by
"City, St" or Zip Code
Pacific ENSO Update

1st Quarter, 2012 Vol. 18 No. 1


RMI Flag Republic of the Marshall Islands: The RMI is one of the regions of the tropical Pacific basin where the mean annual rainfall exhibits a statistically significant long-term decline. Hawaii is another such region, where, over its 100-year climate record, the rainfall and stream flow has been declining. In this respect, 2011 saw a reversal of this ongoing condition in the RMI: annual rainfall was above normal at many atolls. For example, Kwajalein’s 2011 annual total of 119.02 inches was 117% of normal, and Majuro’s 136.31 inches was 104% of normal. Kwajalein’s annual rainfall has exceeded 119.02 inches only ten times in its 60-year rainfall record extending back to 1953, and most recently during 1997.

Republic of the Marshall Islands Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2011

Station   Oct Nov Dec 4th Qtr Annual
RMI Southern and Central Atolls (South of 8°N)
Majuro WSO
Rainfall (inches)
14.65
15.97
10.37
40.99
136.31
% of Normal
106%
125%
88%
106%
104%
Laura
Rainfall (inches)
**
**
**
**
**
% of Normal
**
**
**
**
**
Mili
Rainfall (inches)
4.56
**
**
**
**
% of Normal
**
**
**
**
**
Arno
Rainfall (inches)
12.50
12.39
10.00*
30.51
139.58
% of Normal
97%
106%
100%
88%
120%
Alinglaplap
Rainfall (inches)
7.50
5.82
8.00*
19.05
112.91
% of Normal
54%
45%
68%
49%
86%
Jaluit
Rainfall (inches)
12.21
15.48
10.00*
34.64
137.62
% of Normal
88%
121%
84%
90%
105%
RMI Northern Atolls (North of 8°N)
Kwajalein
Rainfall (inches)
14.00
14.68
5.59
34.27
119.02
% of Normal
118%
138%
69%
112%
117%
Wotje
Rainfall (inches)
5.19
5.24
5.00*
12.18
64.67
% of Normal
46%
52%
65%
42%
67%
Uterik
Rainfall (inches)
**
2.52
**
**
**
% of Normal
**
**
**
**
**

* Estimated from nearby stations
** Missing data

Climate Outlook: During both 2010 and 2011, there was often a fortuitous set-up of the upper atmospheric wind patterns that helped to bring some episodes of very heavy rainfall to many of the atolls. In addition, the trade-wind trough/convergence was well established. Some high 24-hour rainfall totals were observed and also some unusual lightning displays (e.g., a notable thunderstorm near Kwajalein in January 2011). Not counting on the continued help of unusually favorable upper air flow patterns, and considering computer forecasts of near normal rainfall for the next three months, and also factoring-in the long-term trend of declining rainfall in the RMI, the outlook for 2012 is for near-normal rainfall for at least the next three months and likely also the following months of the year.

Forecast rainfall for the Republic of the Marshall Islands from January 2012 through December 2012 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
South of 6° N
6° N to 8° N
North of 8° N 
January - March 2012
(Dry Season)
95%
(22.21 inches)
95%
(22.21 inches)
90%
(11.40 inches)
April - June 2012
(Onset of Rains)
95%
100%
95%
July - September 2012
(Rainy Season)
100%
100%
100%
October - December 2012
(Start of Dry Season)
100%
100%
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: March 22 2012 05:05:08 GMT

Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary

Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities