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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 4


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Yap State: All Yap Island locations were very wet during the 3rd Quarter of 2011, with most locations receiving a 3-month total of over 55 inches. Also during the 3rd Quarter, monthly rainfall totals were 20 inches or more during each of July, August and September at one or more of the Yap Island recording stations. Twenty inches or more rainfall during a month is relatively rare on Yap Island with only 4.4% of all months in the Yap WSO 55-year climate record (1953-2007) at or above 20 inches. In that record, there were 4 (7.3%), 9 (16.3%) and 2 (3.6%) occurrences of 20 inches or more during the months of July, August and September, respectively. At Ulithi, rainfall was similarly abundant with a 3rd Quarter total of 61.21 inches (167%). Ulithi’s monthly rainfall totals during July and August were in excess of 20 inches. Woleai was the only location in Yap State that reported below normal rainfall during the 3rd Quarter. Aside from the abundance of rainfall, the weather at Yap Island and the atolls of Yap State was otherwise unremarkable during the 3rd Quarter of 2011.

Yap State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2011

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Yap Island
Yap WSO
Rainfall (inches)
20.84
19.16
21.03
61.03
43.25
% of Normal
143%
126%
138%
141%
100%
Dugor
Rainfall (inches)
21.08
18.05
21.13
60.25
43.25
% of WSO
145%
119%
139%
139%
100%
Gilman
Rainfall (inches)
20.12
18.12
17.73
55.97
43.25
% of WSO
138%
119%
116%
129%
100%
Luweech
Rainfall (inches)
20.56
19.51
18.69
58.76
43.25
% of WSO
141%
128%
123%
136%
100%
Maap
Rainfall (inches)
24.27
16.12
21.49
61.88
43.25
% of WSO
167%
106%
141%
143%
100%
North Fanif
Rainfall (inches)
21.85
17.21
22.16
61.22
43.25
% of WSO
150%
113%
145%
142%
100%
Rumung
Rainfall (inches)
17.97
13.37
16.27
47.61
43.25
% of WSO
123%
88%
107%
110%
100%
Tamil
Rainfall (inches)
20.15
15.39
19.81
55.35
43.25
% of WSO
138%
101%
130%
128%
100%
Outer Islands
Ulithi
Rainfall (inches)
20.91
22.02
18.28
61.21
36.76
% of Normal
169%
170%
159%
167%
100%
Woleai
Rainfall (inches)
7.19
6.71
9.88
23.78
40.30
% of Normal
58%
46%
84%
59%
100%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2011 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: With La Niña once again in control of the Pacific Basin climate, Yap State should remain wetter than normal for the foreseeable future. With the recent collapse of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity, we would expect low odds (5-10%) for a damaging tropical cyclone to affect any location in Yap State for the remainder of the year. That being said, Yap State, Palau, Guam and the CNMI are the only locations in Micronesia that have a non-negligible chance to be affected by a named tropical cyclone for the remainder of 2011 through January 2012. The sea level typically rises above normal during La Niña, and higher sea level during the next three to six months could exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation during episodes of high surf.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from October 2011 through September 2012 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
October - December 2011
(End of Next Season)
120%
(36.49 inches)
90%
(32.27 inches)
January - April 2012
(Next Dry Season)
110% 95%
May - June 2012
(Onset of Next Rainy Season)
110% 95%
July - September 2012
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
120% 90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: December 09 2011 07:39:19 GMT

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