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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 4


PEAC CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

The TC activity forecasts issued by Paul Stanko now have a very high level of skill for the remaining months of the year. Given the available guidance1, the PEAC Center anticipates that the tropical cyclone activity for the remainder of 2011 will end up below normal for the western North Pacific basin and in Micronesia. It had been near normal for much of the year, but with the recent entry of the climate state into La Niña, the next two months should yield only two or three more numbered cyclones, which (including the one TC during October) will drop the year-end total to less than 30, pushing 2011 TC activity to below normal. There is a good chance (30%) that there may be no further tropical cyclones in Micronesia. The level of threat for any late season cyclone (though lower than average) is highest in the western side of the region (i.e., Guam, the CNMI, Yap and Palau). For the Southern Hemisphere, tropical cyclones should be distributed similarly to last year with activity pushed to the west. The three Australian TC regions (East Coast, Northern Coast, and Northwest Coast) are all anticipated to have higher than normal activity, with reduced activity east of the Coral Sea. The level of threat to individual islands is included in their local variability summaries.


1 The PEAC tropical cyclone forecasts for 2011 are based on forecasts of the status of ENSO and input from three seasonal outlooks for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific basin: (1) The Guam Weather Forecast Office (WFO), (2) The City University of Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, under the direction of Dr. J. C-L. Chan, and (3) The Benfield Hazard Research Centre, University College London, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) research group, UK, led by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders.



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Page Last Modified: December 07 2011 03:14:08 GMT

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