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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 4


Palau Flag Republic of Palau: Most recording locations throughout the Republic of Palau were very wet during the 3rd Quarter of 2011. The 3rd Quarter total rainfall of 76.08 inches was the highest 3-month rainfall total throughout Micronesia. The WSO Koror had the region’s 2 nd highest 3-month total of 70.61 inches (see Fig. 1). Locations on nearby Yap Island ranked third highest in the region. The WSO Koror had more than 20 inches of rain in each month from May through September. This is the first time in Koror’s 55-year climatic record for a run of 5 consecutive months to exceed 20 inches. Most recently, there were three consecutive months of 20-plus inches of rain during June, July, and August of 2007. Persistent monsoonal southwest winds, and a parade of tropical disturbances passing to the north of Palau contributed to incessant heavy rainfall in Palau for many months.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2011

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
28.22
20.94
21.45
70.61
44.85
% of Normal
156%
140%
181%
157%
100%
Nekken
Rainfall (inches)
16.30
20.45
9.16
45.91
44.85
% of WSO
90%
137%
77%
102%
100%
International
Airport
Rainfall (inches)
27.33
24.68
24.07
76.08
44.85
% of WSO
138%
150%
184%
154%
100%
Peleliu
Rainfall (inches)
22.28
16.94
14.86
54.08
44.85
% of WSO
130%
119%
132%
127%
100%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2011 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: With La Niña once again in control of the Pacific Basin climate, the Republic of Palau should remain wetter than normal for the foreseeable future. With the recent collapse of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity, we would expect low odds (5%) for a damaging tropical cyclone to affect any location in the Republic of Palau for the remainder of the year. That being said, Palau, Yap State, Guam and the CNMI are the only locations in Micronesia that have a non-negligible chance to be affected by a named tropical cyclone for the remainder of 2011 through early 2012.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from October 2011 through September 2012 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
October - December 2011
125%
(46.70 inches)

January -March 2012

120%
April - June 2012
120%
July - October 2012
120%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: December 10 2011 01:44:33 GMT

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