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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 4


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Chuuk State: Rainfall was abundant throughout Chuuk State during the 3rd Quarter of 2011. Three-month rainfall totals of 45-50 inches were common. Two atolls in the Mortlock Island group (Nama and Ettal) topped the 3rd Quarter rainfall distribution with 52.30 inches and 50.52 inches respectively. The only sites to record below normal rainfall during the 3rd Quarter were Polowat (on the western side of Chuuk State) and Piis Panew (an islet on the north side of the Chuuk Lagoon). Other than the continuation of abundant rainfall across Chuuk State, the weather was otherwise unremarkable.

Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2011

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr Predicted
Chuuk Lagoon
Chuuk WSO
Rainfall (inches)
14.98
18.46
13.76
47.20
38.20
% of Normal
124%
127%
119%
124%
100%
Piis Panew
Rainfall (inches)
9.00
11.08
8.26
28.34
38.20
% of WSO
74%
75%
72%
74%
100%
Southern Mortlocks
Lukunoch
Rainfall (inches)
17.20
12.78
15.79
45.77
38.20
% of WSO
142%
88%
137%
120%
100%
Ettal
Rainfall (inches)
14.99
17.06
18.47
50.52
38.20
% of WSO
124%
117%
160%
132%
100%
Ta
Rainfall (inches)
11.79
23.24
13.87
48.90
38.20
% of WSO
97%
160%
120%
128%
100%
Namoluk
Rainfall (inches)
14.98
12.10
13.86
40.94
38.20
% of WSO
124%
83%
120%
107%
100%
Northern Atolls
Fananu
Rainfall (inches)
12.93
11.73
11.60
36.26
45.84
% of WSO
107%
81%
101%
95%
120%
Onoun
Rainfall (inches)
21.26
11.38
13.49
46.13
45.84
% of WSO
176%
78%
117%
121%
120%
Northern Mortlocks
Losap
Rainfall (inches)
19.60
10.37
17.13
47.10
38.20
% of WSO
162%
71%
149%
123%
100%
Nama
Rainfall (inches)
20.00
15.94
16.36
52.30
38.20
% of WSO
165%
109%
142%
137%
100%
Western Atolls
Polowat
Rainfall (inches)
8.14
5.93
10.42
24.49
34.38
% of WSO
58%
40%
79%
58%
90%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2011 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: With La Niña back in control of the Pacific Basin climate, abundant rainfall should continue for the foreseeable future throughout Chuuk State. The weather patterns during the remainder of 2011 and through the first few months of 2012 are anticipated to be analogous to the atmospheric weather patterns seen during 2010 and early 2011 when easterly winds and tranquil (though wet) weather persisted. There are negligible odds (< 5%) for a named tropical cyclone to affect Chuuk State for the remainder of 2011 through early 2012. This represents a below normal risk of hazardous effects from tropical cyclones.

Because of the easterly wind anomalies now dominating the low-level wind pattern across Micronesia and the equatorial Pacific, the sea level should be above normal and sea-level anomalies may approach high levels seen in the region over the past three years. Higher-than-normal sea level will expose the atolls of Chuuk State to a heightened risk of sea inundation, especially from late November and December 2011 through the boreal winter months of January, February and March. During these months, the extra-tropical low pressure systems that move eastward from Japan generate large northerly swells that move south from their North Pacific origin and pass through Chuuk State. If the surf from this swell is large enough (> 12 ft), coastal sea inundations can be expected, especially when the moon is in a new or full phase.

Predictions for Chuuk State from October 2011 through September 2012 are as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Chuuk Lagoon, and Northern Mortlocks
Polowat
Northern Atolls

Southern
Mortlocks

October - December 2011
120%
(42.66 inches)
85%
(30.22 inches)
120%
(42.66 inches)
110%
(39.11 inches)
January - March 2012
110%
90%
100%
110%
April - June 2012
115%
90%
110%
115%
July - September 2012
110%
95%
120%
105%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: December 10 2011 01:44:33 GMT

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