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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Yap State: The months of February through April are typically the heart of the dry season for Yap Island and the atolls of Yap State, with monthly rainfall totals dropping to approximately 6 inches across Yap Island and to 5 inches or less at Ulithi. During the first half of 2011, rainfall was above normal for all six months on Yap Island, and for three of the six months at Ulithi. Woleai was drier than normal for all six months. Woleai is consistently drier than its “normal”, and perhaps the rainfall climatology for that island needs to be adjusted. Many of the outer islands of Yap State, and other outer islands of the other states of the FSM have no official rainfall climatology. For these islands, the PEAC has been estimating their anomalies based on the records of nearby stations, and general precipitation patterns observed from satellite in the western Pacific. Some of the early season tropical cyclones and other tropical disturbances contributed to the wet conditions at Yap Island and some of the atolls of Yap State. One of the basins named tropical cyclones (Super Typhoon Songda - 04W) passed very close to Yap on 21-22 May while it was in its early stages of development, providing abundant rainfall and some gusty winds. No significant damage or injuries were reported for this cyclone during its passage through Yap.

Yap State Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2011

Station   April May June 2nd Qtr
1st Half
Yap Island
Yap WSO
Rainfall (inches)
7.20
15.10
13.56
35.86
64.87
% of Normal
125%
167%
107%
130%
139%
Dugor
Rainfall (inches)
9.89
16.54
16.45
42.88
75.47
% of WSO
172%
183%
130%
156%
161%
Gilman
Rainfall (inches)
7.05
13.78
17.54
38.37
70.09
% of WSO
122%
152%
138%
139%
150%
Luweech
Rainfall (inches)
6.76
9.21
15.47
31.44
60.00
% of WSO
117%
102%
122%
114%
128%
Maap
Rainfall (inches)
7.82
12.17
17.69
37.68
65.50
% of WSO
136%
134%
139%
137%
140%
North Fanif
Rainfall (inches)
13.50
20.67
19.73
53.90
73.95
% of WSO
234%
228%
155%
196%
158%
Rumung
Rainfall (inches)
13.73
11.97
13.46
39.16
68.87
% of WSO
238%
132%
106%
142%
147%
Tamil
Rainfall (inches)
13.94
16.64
14.09
30.58
62.99
% of WSO
242%
184%
111%
111%
135%
Outer Islands
Ulithi
Rainfall (inches)
8.47
12.55
8.99
30.01
47.74
% of Normal
173%
163%
83%
128%
120%
Woleai
Rainfall (inches)
4.59
5.35
8.60
18.54
36.71
% of Normal
42%
44%
66%
51%
59%


Climate Outlook: A continuation of near normal to above normal rainfall is anticipated for all islands of Yap State for at least the next three months and probably through the end of the year. The monsoon trough of the western North Pacific has become established in a near-normal location. Rainfall patterns and the basin’s tropical cyclone distribution in an ENSO-neutral climate favor wet conditions on Yap and a normal risk of a typhoon. The odds of gale-force winds or greater from a tropical cyclone on Yap Island or any of its northern atolls will be near normal (roughly 10-15%).

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from July 2011 through June 2012 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
July - September 2011
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
120%
(52.08 inches)
90%
(36.27 inches)
October - December 2011
(End of Next Rainy Season)
110% 95%
January - March 2012
(Heart of Next Dry Season)
100% 90%
April - June 2012
(Onset of Next Rainy Season)
110% 90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: August 09 2011 02:01:38 GMT

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