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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 3


Palau Flag Republic of Palau: All recording locations throughout the Republic of Palau were very wet during the first half of 2011. Four of the first 6 months of the year had rainfall totals in excess of 15 inches at the Koror Weather Service Office, with two months (May and June) topping 20 inches. This heavy rainfall pushed the Koror WSO 6-month total to 103.03 inches, which was the highest recorded 2011 first half total within Micronesia. Most of the year’s early season tropical cyclones affected the Republic of Palau with heavy rainfall, and some produced gusty southwest winds. Named cyclones passing close enough to Palau to affect the local weather include: TC 02W (Tropical Depression), TC 03W (Tropical Storm Aere), TC 04W (Super Typhoon Songda), TC 05W (Tropical Storm Sarika), TC 06W (Tropical Storm Haima), TC 07W (Tropical Storm Meari), and the monsoon surge that swept across Palau into the two-storm combination of TCs 08W (Typhoon Ma-on) and 09W (Tropical Storm Tokage).

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2011

Station   April May June 2nd Qtr
1st Half
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
12.30
20.24
22.62
55.16
103.03
% of Normal
142%
169%
131%
145%
156%
Nekken
Rainfall (inches)
13.24
17.03
25.63
55.90
96.62
% of Normal
139%
131%
135%
135%
133%
International
Airport
Rainfall (inches)
7.18
19.37
18.65
45.20
77.90
% of Normal
80%
161%
110%
119%
118%
Peleliu
Rainfall (inches)
15.99
17.30
24.13
57.42
89.85
% of Normal
184%
144%
140%
151%
136%

Climate Outlook: It has been very wet throughout Palau in the first half of the year. A lot of this abundant rainfall was associated with passing tropical cyclones, usually in their intitial developmental stages. In the anticipated continuation of the ENSO-neutral state of the climate, many of the western North Pacific basin’s tropical cyclones will form and/or move close enough to Palau to keep rainfall abundant there. Typically during late August through September, the monsoon trough and the tracks and regions of tropical cyclone formation move well to the north of Palau, providing a “mini” dry season in the middle of the rainy season. During such time, tropical cyclones pass well to the north of Palau, and a gusty southwest wind sweeps across with hazy skies and choppy seas in coastal waters and in the open waters of the Rock Islands. One or two episodes of very gusty (25 to 35 kt) southwest winds are anticipated in the coming months, with the greatest risk of these events during late August through November. No direct strike of Palau by a tropical cyclone is expected, although if it were to occur, it would likely be late in the year (late November through December).

Forecast rainfall for Palau from July 2011 through June 2012 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
July - September 2011
125%
(54.75 inches)
October - December 2011
120%
January - March 2012
100%
April - June 2012
110%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: August 09 2011 02:01:39 GMT

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