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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Kosrae was relatively dry during the first three months of 2011, receiving approximately 70% of the normal rainfall for this time period. A very wet May helped push the 2nd Quarter total to near 100%, and the first half total to approximately 85%. Despite being below normal, the 2011 first half rainfall total of 93.58 inches (86%) at the Kosrae Airport was among the highest rainfall totals across Micronesia. The dryness in early 2011 was likely due to a greatly expanded La Niña-related equatorial dry wedge extending from the 180° meridian westward into Micronesian waters along the equator. Low latitude atolls of Pohnpei State (e.g., Kapingamarangi and Nukuoro) and of Kiribati were exceptionally dry in proportion to their closeness the equator. Kosrae and some of the southern islands of the RMI were affected by this dry wedge. With ENSO-neutral now here, the rainfall has increased at most of these low latitude islands.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2011

Station  
April
May
June
2nd Qtr
1st Half
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
16.11
28.41
16.69
61.21
93.58
% of Normal
74%
151%
88%
103%
86%
Utwa
Rainfall (Inches)
16.41
21.85
18.45
56.71
92.65
% of WSO
76%
116%
97%
95%
85%
Nautilus Hotel
Rainfall (Inches)
18.86
21.12
15.71
55.69
92.20
% of WSO
87%
112%
83%
94%
85%
Tofol
Rainfall (Inches)
15.00
20.65
18.60
54.25
94.94
% of WSO
69%
110%
98%
91%
87%


Climate Outlook: For the next several months, weak easterly winds should dominate in Kosrae. Westerly winds that are part of the monsoon trough system of the western North Pacific should episodically reach almost to Kosrae. Monsoon depressions and other disturbances of the tropical atmosphere tend to develop near the eastern reaches of the monsoon trough. Periodic regions of disturbed weather should bring abundant rainfall to Kosrae for the remainder of the year, with monthly rainfall totals running near normal to above normal. No adverse tropical cyclone activity is expected for Kosrae State during the remaining months of 2011, although from August through October there may be some short periods of westerly surface winds.


Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from July 2011 through June 2012 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
July - September 2011
110%
(47.69 inches)
October - December 2011
110%
January - March 2012
100%
April - June 2012
120%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: August 09 2011 02:01:40 GMT

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