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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Chuuk State: Rainfall was abundant throughout Chuuk State during the first half of 2011, with some locations receiving very high amounts of rainfall. There was a slight north-south gradient reflecting the placement of the trade wind trough across the southern portions of the state in the first few months of the year. During May and June, the monsoon trough moved eastward into Chuuk State bringing abundant deep convection and intense rain showers into the region. The northern atolls received the least amount of rain, and some of the atolls further south in the Mortlocks received extraordinary amounts of rainfall. The 97.73 inches observed at Ta Atoll in the southern Mortlocks was the highest observed 2011 first-half total within Chuuk State, and was one of the highest observed 6-month rainfall totals in all of Micronesia. The 77.06 inches recorded at the Chuuk WSO during the first half of 2011 was above normal (125%), and included a big June total of 25.43 inches (217%).

Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2011

Station   April May June 2st Qtr 1st Half
Chuuk Lagoon
Chuuk WSO
Rainfall (inches)
12.48
8.68
25.43
46.59
77.06
% of Normal
101%
71%
217%
128%
125%
Piis Panew
Rainfall (inches)
7.49
5.21
15.26
27.96
46.24
% of WSO
61%
43%
130%
77%
75%
Southern Mortlocks
Lukunoch
Rainfall (inches)
12.40
16.20
22.27
50.87
89.15
% of WSO
100%
132%
190%
140%
145%
Ettal
Rainfall (inches)
10.41
17.22
27.08
54.71
86.50
% of WSO
84%
141%
231%
151%
141%
Ta
Rainfall (inches)
9.48
21.29
26.45
57.22
97.73
% of WSO
77%
174%
226%
158%
159%
Northern Atolls
Fananu
Rainfall (inches)
6.18
15.06
11.04
32.28
58.93
% of Normal
50%
123%
94%
89%
96%
Onoun
Rainfall (inches)
6.53
13.64
18.03
38.20
75.93
% of Normal
53%
157%
154%
105%
123%
Northern Mortlocks
Losap
Rainfall (inches)
10.09
12.17
23.97
46.23
79.13
% of Normal
82%
110%
205%
127%
129%
Nama
Rainfall (inches)
7.60
17.69
19.71
45.00
85.45
% of Normal
62%
145%
168%
124%
139%
Namoluk
Rainfall (inches)
12.93
15.65
21.15
49.73
90.82
% of Normal
105%
128%
180%
137%
148%
Western Atolls
Polowat
Rainfall (inches)
2.47
5.38
12.74
20.59
27.66
% of Normal
41%
60%
102%
75%
57%

Climate Outlook: With the Pacific basin climate remaining in ENSO-neutral, abundant rainfall should continue throughout Chuuk State for at least the next several months. The monsoon trough should episodically extend into Chuuk State with its embedded tropical disturbances and monsoon depression stages of developing tropical cyclones bringing periods of heavy rain showers to the region. During August and September, the monsoon trough may move northward at times placing Chuuk State in a weak ridge of high pressure that brings hot dry weather with light winds. Thus the weather for the next few months in Chuuk State will feature periods of heavy rain showers with some several-day breaks of hot dry weather. One or two occurrences of gale-force wind associated with a developing tropical cyclone may affect Chuuk Lagoon or atolls to the north, especially in the fall of 2011. This represents a near normal risk of hazardous effects from tropical cyclones.

Predictions for Chuuk State from July 2011 through June 2012 are as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Chuuk Lagoon, Losap, and Nama

Atolls

Polowat
Northern Islands
Mortlocks
July - September 2011
120%
(43.86 inches)
90%
(32.57 inches)
120%
(43.43 inches)
120%
(43.43 inches)
October - December 2011
120%
95%
120%
120%
January - March 2012
100%
90%
100%
100%
April - June 2012
110%
95%
100%
110%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Honolulu, HI 96822
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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: August 09 2011 02:01:41 GMT

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