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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 2


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State: The 2011 1st Quarter rainfall was above normal on Pohnpei Island. On the atolls of Pohnpei State, there was a variety of rainfall conditions with Nukuoro below normal, Pingelap near normal, and Mwoakilloa above normal. Close to the equator, at Kapingamarangi, it was very dry. Because La Niña produced colder than normal sea surface temperatures along the equator for several months beginning in the latter part of 2010, the atolls of Pohnpei State located at low latitudes (e.g., Kapingamarangi at 1 °N and Nukuoro at 4 °N) had reduced rainfall in recent months. The reduction of rainfall was most pronounced at Kapingamarangi where the monthly rainfall during September 2010 through February 2011 was 0.72 inches, 1.10 inches, 2.07 inches, 0.76 inches, 2.27 inches, and 0.20 inches. This level of dryness (only 15% of the normal rainfall total during the 6-month period) prompted the WFO Guam in coordination with the WSO Pohnpei to issue weekly drought advisories for Kapingamarangi, which continued through late April 2011. Much needed rainfall occurred at Kapingamarangi in March 2011. As noted in the drought advisories, damage to vegetation and crops probably occurred during this prolonged dry spell.


Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2011

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
Pohnpei Island
Pohnpei WSO
Rainfall (inches)
12.24
12.25
20.60
45.09
35.54
% of Normal
94%
113%
152%
121%
95%
Palikir
Rainfall (inches)
11.66
18.59
22.33
52.58
38.41
% of Normal
83%
159%
153%
130%
95%
Kolonia Airport
Rainfall (inches)
8.30
11.66
20.75
40.71
29.08
% of Normal
77%
131%
187%
133%
95%
Atolls of Pohnpei State
Nukuoro
Rainfall (inches)
4.34
6.66
16.96
27.96
34.11
% of Normal
40%
63%
125%
78%
95%
Pingelap
Rainfall (inches)
12.79
14.22
13.23
40.24
37.05
% of Normal
103%
116%
91%
103%
95%
Mwokilloa
Rainfall (inches)
15.35
13.85
16.04
45.24
37.05
% of Normal
124%
113%
111%
116%
95%
Kapingamarangi
Rainfall (inches)
2.27
0.20
8.46
10.93
25.95
% of Normal
22%
2%
61%
32%
75%
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2011 made in 4th Quarter 2010 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook:

The dry conditions at Kapingamarangi should soon end. A welcome increase of rainfall occurred during March 2011, and rainfall amounts should gradually recover to near normal over the next 3 to 6 months.

Pohnpei Island usually experiences its heaviest monthly rainfall during April through June. It may be quite wet on Pohnpei Island during April through June of 2011, with 25-30 inches of rain possible in one of those months at the WSO or at Palikir.

A direct strike of any Pohnpei State location by a tropical storm or typhoon is not anticipated in the foreseeable future.

Forecast rainfall for Pohnpei State from April 2011 through March 2012 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Pohnpei Islands and Atolls Kapingamarangi
April - June 2011
120%
(64.09 inches)
75%
(23.46 inches)
July - September 2011
100% 85%
October - December 2011
100% 90%
January - March 2012
100% 90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: May 21 2011 01:36:37 GMT

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