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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 2


Palau Flag Republic of Palau: Rainfall during the first three months of 2011 was above normal throughout most of the Republic of Palau. The Koror Weather Service Office (WSO) was wettest with roughly 47.87 inches of rain during the 1st Quarter, or 171% of normal. This 3-month total at Koror WSO was the second highest 1st Quarter total observed in Micronesia, and was second only to the 52.58 inches observed at Palikir, Pohnpei Island. Other locations in the Republic of Palau reported lesser amounts than at the WSO, but all recording sites were above normal. In a La Niña weather pattern, the heavy rainfall of the tropical western North Pacific shifts to the west (or at least is not reduced in the western portion of the basin). Thus, there has been an abundance of convective cloud clusters and tropical disturbances providing heavy rainfall in the Republic of Palau which is located in the far western portion of Micronesia. At the end of March, a large monsoon depression formed south of Palau. This monsoon depression evolved into Tropical Depression 02W. The monsoon depression and the numbered tropical depression that it spawned stayed in the region of Palau for over a week producing abundant rains, a period of westerly wind, and some high surf on the western shores of the islands.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2011

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
18.62
13.95
15.30
47.87
28.02
% of Normal
174%
153%
187%
171%
100%
Nekken
Rainfall (inches)
10.80
8.97
13.38
32.43
28.02
% of Normal
94%
98%
163%
116%
100%
International
Airport
Rainfall (inches)
13.59
14.52
12.61
40.72
28.02
% of Normal
127%
159%
154%
145%
100%
Peleliu
Rainfall (inches)
10.41
17.30
4.99
32.70
27.90
% of Normal
97%
190%
61%
117%
100%
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2011 made in 4th Quarter 2010 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: With La Niña conditions slowly abating and the climate system of the Pacific trending towards ENSO-neutral, Palau should have above normal rainfall for the foreseeable future. This typical response to this particular evolution of ENSO is also supported by long-range computer forecasts that show normal to above-normal rainfall for the next 3 months.

There is only a slight risk (5-10% - which is normal) of a damaging tropical cyclone in the Republic of Palau during all of 2011, with greatest threat late in the year. It is most likely that one of the western North Pacific basin’s final typhoons of 2011 will move to the north or northeast of Palau to bring a few days of gusty westerly winds, high surf on the western shores, and some heavy showers.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from April 2011 through March 2012 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
April - June 2011
120%
(45.91 inches)

July - October 2011

100%
October - December 2011
120%
January -March 2012
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: May 21 2011 02:27:15 GMT

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