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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 2


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: The tongue of colder-than-normal sea surface temperature (which was responsible for the prolonged substantial reduction of rainfall at Kapingamarangi and a short term reduction of rainfall on Nukuoro) likely had a perceptible impact on the rainfall on Kosrae. Located at just under 6 °N, the island of Kosrae was at times, in a dry easterly wind flow, with heavier rainfall passing to the north in the convergence zone. Rainfall across Kosrae has been persistently drier than normal for many months. The rainfall amounts during the 1st Quarter of 2011 continued this trend, with a 3-month 2011 1st Quarter total at the airport of 32.37 inches, which was only 66% of normal. Other locations on Kosrae were wetter than at the airport, with Tofol being the wettest. A monthly rainfall total below 10 inches is relatively rare on Kosrae, comprising only about 20% of all months during the 1st Quarter of the year, and 15% of all months regardless of quarter.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2011

Station  
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
1st Qtr
Predicted
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
11.81
10.96
9.60
32.37
46.94
% of Normal
82%
67%
51%
66%
95%
Utwa
Rainfall (Inches)
9.73
9.82
16.39
35.94
46.94
% of WSO
68%
60%
88%
73%
95%
Nautilus Hotel
Rainfall (Inches)
12.91
12.30
11.30
36.51
46.94
% of WSO
90%
75%
61%
74%
95%
Tofol
Rainfall (Inches)
14.45
9.50
16.74
40.69
46.94
% of WSO
100%
58%
90%
82%
95%
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2011 made in 4th Quarter 2010 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: April, May, and June are normally the wettest months of the year at Kosrae. Computer forecasts are indicating normal or above normal rainfall for Kosrae during the upcoming period of April through June, but given the recent unexpected dryness there, the rainfall might only recover to near normal. Even normal rainfall in the next three months would be quite a bit wetter than it has been on Kosrae in recent months.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from April 2011 through March 2012 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

April - June 2011

100%
(59.46 inches)

July - September 2011

100%

October - December 2011

100%

January - March 2012

95%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: May 21 2011 02:02:26 GMT

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