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Pacific ENSO Update

1st Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 1


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Yap State: During 2010, all Yap island locations had annual rainfall that was near normal to slightly below normal. The weather was unremarkable, and there were no serious impacts by tropical cyclones. Water supplies from rain catchment, wells, and surface reservoirs were adequate throughout the year. Some of the atolls in the southeastern part of Yap State (e.g., Woleai) were dry during 2010. The dryness in this region may have been an influence of La Niña to keep the normal monsoon trough out of the region and replace it with a weak ridge of high pressure. Woleai (and likely other southern and southeastern atolls of Yap State) had 2010 annual rainfall amounts reduced to nearly half of normal.

Yap State Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2010

Station   Oct Nov Dec 4th Qtr Annual
Yap Island
Yap WSO
Rainfall (inches)
17.33
8.64
6.48
32.45
108.77
% of Normal
123%
32%
78%
73%
91%
Dugor
Rainfall (inches)
14.57
5.93
8.32
28.82
102.11
% of WSO
122%
65%
93%
96%
85%
Gilman
Rainfall (inches)
16.23
8.40
10.75
35.38
103.26
% of WSO
136%
93%
120%
118%
86%
Luweech
Rainfall (inches)
16.02
8.48
6.17
30.67
108.29
% of WSO
134%
93%
69%
102%
90%
Maap
Rainfall (inches)
12.73
4.51
9.05
26.29
90.20
% of WSO
106%
50%
101%
88%
75%
North Fanif
Rainfall (inches)
15.64
7.68
11.18
34.50
105.48
% of WSO
131%
85%
124%
115%
88%
Rumung
Rainfall (inches)
13.60
10.64
10.01
34.25
109.58
% of WSO
114%
117%
111%
114%
91%
Tamil
Rainfall (inches)
12.60
6.76
7.52
26.88
91.35
% of WSO
105%
75%
84%
90%
76%
Outer Islands
Ulithi
Rainfall (inches)
13.34
9.58
5.10
28.02
82.98
% of Normal
131%
124%
67%
110%
81%
Woleai
Rainfall (inches)
9.65
8.12
6.92
24.69
77.85
% of Normal
71%
75%
60%
69%
56%


Climate Outlook: Yap State is entering its dry season. The months of February through April are the heart of the normal dry season. During 2011, it is anticipated that the most likely scenario would be for the current La Niña conditions to slowly fade back to ENSO-neutral by June or July. In this scenario, near-normal to above-normal rainfall is likely for most islands of Yap State through the dry season (February through May). The rainy season should begin on time in late May or early June. Tropical cyclone activity should be reduced through the first half of 2011, and then become near normal for the remainder of 2011.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from January 2011 through December 2011 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
January - March 2011
(Heart of Dry Season)
120%
(22.60 inches)
100%
(26.48 inches)
April - June 2011
(Onset of Rainy Season)
110% 100%
July - September 2011
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
110% 100%
October - December 2011
(End of Next Rainy Season)
120% 100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: February 28 2011 06:20:53 GMT

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