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Pacific ENSO Update

1st Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 1


Palau Flag Republic of Palau: The weather and climate conditions during 2010 in the Republic of Palau were tranquil and uneventful. The rainfall during most of the months of 2010 was below normal, leading to 2010 annual totals that were below normal at most Palau locations. Despite this shortfall, there was generally enough rainfall to ensure adequate water supplies. The 2010 annual total rainfall of 106.60 inches at the WSO Koror was 72% of normal. Continuing a pattern noted since the rain gage at the Palau International Airport was activated, the 2010 total of 122.03 inches (though below the annual amounts recorded there in recent years) was again wetter than at the WSO. Peleliu has a history of being slightly drier than the WSO, but during 2010 it was slightly wetter with an annual total of 107.87 inches.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2010

Station   Oct Nov Dec 4th Qtr Annual
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
10.49
10.94
9.29
30.72
106.60
% of Normal
76%
97%
78%
83%
72%
Nekken
Rainfall (inches)
8.86
13.37
8.82
31.05
129.80
% of WSO
64%
118%
74%
84%
88%
International
Airport
Rainfall (inches)
13.24
13.58
8.68
35.50
122.30
% of WSO
86%
107%
65%
86%
74%
Peleliu
Rainfall (inches)
12.60
7.97
10.79
31.36
107.87
% of WSO
91%
71%
91%
85%
73%

Climate Outlook: The distribution of rainfall on Palau during 2011 will depend upon the rate of the demise of La Niña. The faster that La Niña conditions decay in the next few months, the wetter it is likely to be in Palau, both over the next few months, and later in the year. At this time, it is anticipated that La Niña will fade to ENSO-neutral by June or July. With La Niña weakened, the southwest monsoon will extend further into the western North Pacific than it did during 2010. There will therefore be an increase of monsoon depressions and other tropical disturbances that will provide abundant rainfall to Palau throughout the year.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from January 2011 through December 2011 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
January -March 2011
110%
(32.60 inches)

April - June 2011

110%
July - September 2011
120%
October - December 2010
120%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: March 01 2011 01:59:57 GMT

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