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Pacific ENSO Update

1st Quarter, 2011 Vol. 17 No. 1


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Kosrae is typically one of Micronesia’s wettest locations, with an annual average rainfall of over 200 inches. During 2010, Kosrae locations fell short of their normal high rainfall values. Two months (February and September) were particularly dry. Water resource managers began to worry during February 2010 when it was very dry (only 2.24 inches at the Kosrae airport). Higher monthly amounts of rainfall returned thereafter to alleviate concerns about water supplies. The annual total rainfall of 155.08 inches at the Kosrae Airport during 2010 was only 75% of normal. Persistent below normal rainfall at Kosrae during the last four months of 2010 may have been related to La Niña, which caused below-normal to far-below-normal rainfall in a long east-west band near the equator across most of the Pacific.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2010

Station  
Oct
Nov
Dec
4th Qtr
Annual
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
13.80
11.70
10.99
36.49
155.08
% of Normal
85%
74%
76%
78%
75%
Utwa
Rainfall (Inches)
12.51
12.05
11.04
35.60
175.93
% of WSO
77%
76%
76%
79%
85%
Nautilus Hotel
Rainfall (Inches)
12.47
14.06
12.88
39.41
161.81
% of WSO
77%
88%
89%
85%
78%
Tofol
Rainfall (Inches)
11.98
13.69
7.78
33.45
150.62
% of WSO
74%
86%
54%
72%
73%

Climate Outlook: Although La Niña is expected to fade to ENSO-neutral by June or July, a weather pattern of persistent trade winds should continue to dominate at Kosrae. During persistent trade-wind conditions, the trade-wind trough (or ITCZ) sharpens, with its associated east-west band of concentrated cloudiness located so as to produce abundant rainfall on Kosrae. The months of March through June (normally the wettest of the year on Kosrae) are anticipated to have near normal rainfall. Normal monthly rainfall values at Kosrae are typically between 16 and 20 inches for all months of the year. No adverse tropical cyclone activity is expected for Kosrae State during 2011.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from January 2011 through December 2011 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

January - March 2011

95%
(46.94 inches)

April - June 2011

110%

July - September 2011

100%

October - December 2011

100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: March 01 2011 02:00:51 GMT

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