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Pacific ENSO Update

Special Bulletin, February 1st, 2010


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia
Yap State: 
A reduction of normal rainfall has already begun in Yap State as demonstrated by the December rainfall total of only 3.75 inches at the Yap Weather Service Office (WSO). Southern Islands fared a little better, with 7.7 inches at Woleai in December. Occasional rains have continued and water supplies remain adequate for now. However, this may change in the next few months.

ENSO-Critical Period Climate Outlook (February through June 2010): Yap Island and the atolls of Yap State are entering the heart of their respective dry seasons. Rainfall is often quite low (monthly values of 5 inches or less) at this time of year. El Niño typically reduces dry season rainfall and extends the dry season into May and June when monthly values normally begin to rise. The reservoir near Colonia could "dry up".

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
 
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
February - April 2010
(Heart of Dry Season)
60%
(10.30 inches)
60%
(16.08 inches)
May - June 2010
(Extended DrySeason)
70%
75%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 20:42:36 GMT

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