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Pacific ENSO Update

Special Bulletin, February 1st, 2010


FSM Flag Republic of the Marshall Islands: Rainfall across the RMI was near normal through the end of 2009. In the first half of January 2010, a period of dry weather impacted rain catchment. A tropical disturbance moved through the RMI during the week of January 18th, providing some much-needed rainfall and helping to replenish the water supply.

ENSO-Critical Period Climate Outlook (February through June 2010): The RMI typically has a short dry season from January to March, when the average monthly rainfall values fall below 10 inches at Majuro and below 5 inches at Kwajalein. In response to strong El Niño conditions, rainfall during the dry season can be reduced, and the dry season can be extended into May or June. Thereafter, the rainfall throughout the RMI recovers to near normal. For the next few months, rainfall across the RMI may be substantially reduced, with one or two months experiencing less than 3 inches at Kwajalein and adjacent atolls, and less than 5 inches at Majuro and its adjacent atolls. Atolls to the south of Majuro (e.g., Mili and Ebon) will have the most rainfall and will recover to near normal sooner than atolls further to the north.

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
 
Ebon and Mili
Majuro
Northern Atolls
February - April 2010
(Normal Dry Season)
75%
(18.53 inches)
70%
(18.61 inches)
60%
(8.93 inches)
May - June 2010
80%
75%
70%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 20:34:26 GMT

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