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Pacific ENSO Update

Special Bulletin, February 1st, 2010


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia
Pohnpei State: 
Rainfall throughout Pohnpei State has been near normal for the past few months. Typically, Pohnpei Island does not have much of a dry season, and February is the only month receiving rainfall below 10 inches. By April and May, abundant rainfall returns, with May having the highest average monthly value (e.g., 19.41 inches at the WSO).

ENSO-Critical Period Climate Outlook (February through June 2010): In response to strong El Niño conditions, Pohnpei rainfall may be substantially reduced during the next five months (January - May), with one or two months receiving rainfall at or below 5 inches. The expected dryness for the first half of 2010 is not anticipated to be as severe as during 1983 and 1998.

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
 
Pohnpei Island and Atolls
Kapingamarangi
February - April 2010
70%
(28.48 inches)
85%
(32.08 inches)
May - June 2010
80%
90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 20:34:26 GMT

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