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Pacific ENSO Update

Special Bulletin, February 1st, 2010


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia
Kosrae State: 
A slight reduction of normal rainfall has already begun in Kosrae as demonstrated by the 2009 4th Quarter total of 41.60 inches (vs. normal 46.60 inches) at the Kosrae Airport. Water supplies remain adequate for now, but there will likely be a moderate reduction of rainfall in the next few months.

ENSO-Critical Period Climate Outlook (February through June 2010): Kosrae does not usually have a dry season, and monthly average rainfall values are over 15 inches per month, except December and January, which have normal monthly rainfall totals of just under 15 inches. The current strong El Niño event could potentially diminish the rainfall at Kosrae during the next four months (January - April). Rainfall typically recovers to near normal after this period. Normally, Kosrae's small population does not severely stress the island's water resources.

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
February - April 2010
75%
(42.51 inches)
May - June 2010
90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 20:42:37 GMT

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