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Pacific ENSO Update

Special Bulletin, February 1st, 2010


Guam and CNMI Flag Guam/CNMI:  Abundant rainfall occurred in Guam and the CNMI during December 2009. A recent shearline passage during the week of January 18th brought cool, wind-driven rain that pushed January totals past monthly normals at many locations, helping this region to prepare for anticipated low rainfall over the next several months. By March or April, it should become dry enough to increase the risk of brush fires that normally occur in the latter half of the dry season. During the drought of 1998, twelve percent of Guam's land area was scorched by brush fires.

ENSO-Critical Period Climate Outlook (February through June 2010): Guam and the CNMI are now entering the heart of their respective dry seasons. Rainfall is normally quite low at this time of year (e.g., 3 inches during a normal March). El Niño typically extends the dry season into June and reduces rainfall during this period. Months with total rainfall below 1 inch are common during ENSO-related dry periods. One or two months with rainfall totals at or below 2 inches are anticipated during February through May 2010.

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
 
Guam/Rota
Saipan/Tinian
February - April 2010
(Heart of Dry Season)
70%
(7.44 inches)
75%
(4.74 inches)
May - June 2010
(Extended DrySeason)
65%*
75%*

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.
*May-June are severe months as rainfall totals will increase above 3-4 inches until July for Guam-Rota and August for Tinian-Saipan.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 20:40:30 GMT

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