Local forecast by
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Special Bulletin, February 1st, 2010
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Guam/CNMI: Abundant rainfall occurred in Guam and the CNMI during December 2009. A recent
shearline passage during the week of January 18th brought cool, wind-driven rain that pushed
January totals past monthly normals at many locations, helping this region to prepare for anticipated
low rainfall over the next several months. By March or April, it should become dry enough
to increase the risk of brush fires that normally occur in the latter half of the dry season. During the drought of
1998, twelve percent of Guam's land area was scorched by brush fires.
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ENSO-Critical Period Climate Outlook (February through June 2010): Guam and the CNMI are now
entering the heart of their respective dry seasons. Rainfall is normally quite low at this time of year (e.g., 3
inches during a normal March). El Niño typically extends the dry season into June and reduces rainfall during
this period. Months with total rainfall below 1 inch are common during ENSO-related dry periods. One or
two months with rainfall totals at or below 2 inches are anticipated during February through May 2010.
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Inclusive Period
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% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
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Guam/Rota |
Saipan/Tinian |
February - April 2010
(Heart of Dry Season)
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70%
(7.44 inches)
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75%
(4.74 inches)
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May - June 2010
(Extended DrySeason)
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65%* |
75%* |
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Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.
*May-June are severe months as rainfall totals will increase above 3-4 inches until July for Guam-Rota and August for Tinian-Saipan.
source: UOG-WERI
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