Local forecast by
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Special Bulletin, February 1st, 2010
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Federated States of Micronesia
Chuuk State: A reduction of normal rainfall has already begun in Chuuk State, as evidenced by the December
rainfall total of only 5.26 inches at the Chuuk WSO. Occasional rains have continued and water supplies
remain adequate for now, but conditions will likely change in the next few months.
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ENSO-Critical Period Climate Outlook (February through June 2010): The islands of Chuuk Lagoon and
the other atolls of Chuuk State are entering their normal dry season, which often lasts only a couple of months.
Chuuk normally experiences reduced rainfall during February and March (less than 10 inches per month), and
abundant rainfall returns in April. El Niño typically reduces dry season rainfall and extends the dry season
into April and May (when monthly values begin to rise). Large populations and relatively small fresh water
sources make Chuuk State especially vulnerable to drought.
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Inclusive Period
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% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
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Chuuk Lagoon,
Northern Mortlocks |
Polowat |
Northern
Atolls |
Southern
Mortlocks |
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February - April 2010
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60%
(15.80 inches)
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60%
(11.10 inches)
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60%
(12.72 inches)
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60%
(18.28 inches)
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May - June 2010
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70% |
70% |
70% |
80% |
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Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.
source: UOG-WERI
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