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Pacific ENSO Update

Special Bulletin, February 1st, 2010


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia
Chuuk State: 
A reduction of normal rainfall has already begun in Chuuk State, as evidenced by the December rainfall total of only 5.26 inches at the Chuuk WSO. Occasional rains have continued and water supplies remain adequate for now, but conditions will likely change in the next few months.

ENSO-Critical Period Climate Outlook (February through June 2010): The islands of Chuuk Lagoon and the other atolls of Chuuk State are entering their normal dry season, which often lasts only a couple of months. Chuuk normally experiences reduced rainfall during February and March (less than 10 inches per month), and abundant rainfall returns in April. El Niño typically reduces dry season rainfall and extends the dry season into April and May (when monthly values begin to rise). Large populations and relatively small fresh water sources make Chuuk State especially vulnerable to drought.

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
 
Chuuk Lagoon, Northern Mortlocks
Polowat
Northern Atolls
Southern Mortlocks
February - April 2010
60%
(15.80 inches)
60%
(11.10 inches)
60%
(12.72 inches)
60%
(18.28 inches)
May - June 2010
70%
70%
70%
80%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 20:34:23 GMT

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