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Pacific ENSO Update

Special Bulletin, February 1st, 2010


American Samoa Flag American Samoa:  American Samoa has entered its rainy season, and rainfall has been abundant so far. Rainfall is expected to lessen in the next few months, especially if El Niño conditions force the northwest monsoon and tropical-cyclone activity further eastward into the Cook Islands and French Polynesia. For February and March there is still an above-normal risk for a tropical cyclone to occur near American Samoa.

ENSO-Critical Period Climate Outlook (February through June 2010): Computer forecasts and consensus outlooks from several regional meteorological centers indicate that rainfall in American Samoa is likely to be slightly below normal for the next few months during the remainder of rainy season.

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
February - April 2010
(Heart of Rainy Season)
90%
(31.01 inches)
May - June 2010
(End of Rainy Season)
85%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 20:34:23 GMT

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